- Location
- Europe
At 2m, at 1m? It's a worry. Check please.
NWR new zero tolerance covid thread
- Thread starter Tom Cannavan
- Start date
- Location
- Manchester
I see the story is also covered by newsthump
newsthump.com
New advice that highly flatulent people should wear ‘arse masks’ in enclosed spaces
After government officials admitted that it was now possible people could catch Covid from other people’s farts, highly flatulent people will be asked to wear arse masks in enclosed spaces.
newsthump.com
- Location
- London
Indeed. You'll have noted the position of the above mentioned quartet on the more recent referendum!
- Location
- London
I meant a possible decline in the last few days, Bryan.
Given that the number of 'pings' is increasing, it could indicate that the number of cases is rising, that interaction is increasing, or both. I apologise for the lack of clarity.
- Location
- London
My pure guess is that Monday may have brought a generalised switching off of the 'app'-certainly I know of many who have-and a concomitant reduction in the use of lateral flow tests, so that only the symptomatic are likely to take the more reliable PCR test. The really reliable figures are for hospital and ICU admissions, which remain low though on quite a steep incline last time I looked. I have no idea where this will go, though I would have if this were Greek tragedy rather than real life.
- Location
- Europe
Farrar makes clear HMG departed from scientific advice eg failing to lock down last Autumn.
Spike: The Virus v the People by Jeremy Farrar
Spike: The Virus v the People by Jeremy Farrar
- Location
- London
Yes, there's a good interview here Jeremy Farrar: ‘A September 2020 lockdown would have saved a lot of lives’
- Location
- Manchester
I'm not saying I don't trust it, but the "official" data - that reported on the news everyday - is just one way of looking at what is happing, with its own set of definitions for Covid new cases, hospitalisations and deaths, and means of data collection.
When you look beyond the official data, you do not immediately descend into the world of anecdote and cranks. There are other groups of respectable researchers who have their own methodologies for analysing data, with the aim of understanding trends and their causes.
The team behind the Covid Zoe app is one example. Their reports are made available to Sage, and thus are considered when advising Government. They can also be accessed by anyone else through the app, and maybe other ways.
I'm not sure how the Zoe data might impact on recent discussions here, as frankly I am not so interested in that level of detail, but I am aware that it does sometimes throw a different light on what is happening.
When you look beyond the official data, you do not immediately descend into the world of anecdote and cranks. There are other groups of respectable researchers who have their own methodologies for analysing data, with the aim of understanding trends and their causes.
The team behind the Covid Zoe app is one example. Their reports are made available to Sage, and thus are considered when advising Government. They can also be accessed by anyone else through the app, and maybe other ways.
I'm not sure how the Zoe data might impact on recent discussions here, as frankly I am not so interested in that level of detail, but I am aware that it does sometimes throw a different light on what is happening.
- Location
- London and Connecticut
Who else (other than government agencies) is generating primary data on a scale that is reliable Steve? Or are you sceptical about how those data are interpreted by the government and/or media? Personally, I don't see those primary data 'as just one way of looking at what is happening' - it's pretty well all we have to go on and I think you'd have to be in the conspiracy camp to believe that it is being faked or poorer than data from non-government sources. Or perhaps I just haven't understood the root cause of your concerns.
- Location
- UK
Cases down again today. Certainly beginning to look like a trend.
- Location
- London
Does it show any difference Steve? It seems getting hold of a simple graph that is up-to-date to the last few days is not possible. Or am I missing something?
Anyhow on the Government site cases are down just under 10% on yesterday.
- Location
- Oxfordshire
Firmly in the optimistic camp, and with the flag to prove it, it nevertheless seems feasible to me that the current dip is just the effect of schools closing. I'm sure the data exists to test that, however, although I've not seen it: it would plainly reside in an age breakdown of cases.
- Location
- London
We'll likely have to wait a week or so for the latest PHE surveillance report to come out that gives that sort of breakdown. Though annoyingly its age group category includes 10-19 which is slightly too far of a range to be completely helpful.
- Location
- Europe
I have always been told that when looking for trends to stick to one data set, not to pick and choose the one that suits ones argument. And that some data is leading and some lagging. I am optimistic with the figures I am seeing.
- Location
- Manchester
Well, I mentioned one, you can get the app, or there is a website here
ZOE Health Study
Fight major diseases like COVID & cancer logging your health daily with millions of community scientists supporting global health research.
covid.joinzoe.com
I thought I was clear in saying I did NOT have concerns about the "official" data. But it is what it is, and there are alternative definitions, ways of gathering data and analysing it - that's all. The official numbers do not describe everything that is happening. I don't see there is any competition.
The focus of the Zoe research is to identify symptoms, which the official data does not address at all. But they report other aspects along the way.
I presume there are other research projects too, but don't know there names
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- Location
- Manchester
There are differences. Of course - different method were used to get the numbers and trends. Like I said, if you want to know more details you'll have to look for yourself
- Location
- London
I was just assuming as you were using it that you'd know. It appears to be based on self reporting and extrapolation. Which as interesting as that is really nothing like actual data for tests and cases. It also seems rather difficult to get anything out of it. Anyway. I'm sure it's useful to someone just cannot make much sense of it myself.
- Location
- Manchester
I don't think anyone here is suggesting we should "pick and choose the one that suits ones argument".
But that doesn't stop us using all the data we have, and analysing it, and creating predictive models, to the best of our ability.
It is better than only accepting the "official" data as the basis for decisions, and hand-waving to explain anomalies.
- Location
- Manchester
Symptoms are definitely self reported, but reportees can be asked to do PCR tests, and I am sure all test results from outside the project are used in some form.
I believe some body is also asking randomly selected people to take tests to help establish the prevalence rates in the population. In principle that is a much sounder basis for decision-making than "confirmed cases" (as testing is usually performed for practical purposes, and thus focusses on those most likely to be positive, according to criteria that change) but will be a much smaller data set.
- Location
- London
Yes looks encouraging but it’s two weeks since the Euros finished and schools have just broken up. To counter that you have got the opening up and all those clubs and other activities from this weekend. If they are sitting around same number or less next Sunday I think we can certainly say it’s a possibly unexpected reversal of rising numbers.
I certainly expected numbers to continue upwards for a while as did the government and scientists.
Either way even if there is a rise it willl be from a lower base number which is positive. The school years 7-11 and year 12- age 24 group accounted for a rather large chunk of infection numbers.
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- Location
- London
- Location
- Herefordshire
How many roads must a man walk down?
A number of countries that have had recent big run-ups in cases are now also receding like UK, e.g., Spain, Portugal, Netherlands. Maybe this suggests that when cases start to rise rapidly (and that gets publicity), some people start to act more responsibly?
- Location
- London
Sad as it is a good vaccine and the world needs them
www.politico.eu
How AstraZeneca threw away its shot
AstraZeneca and the EU might have ruined Africa’s best chance out of the pandemic.
- Location
- Deep South of Cambridgeshire
I forget - are Politico to be trusted?!Sad as it is a good vaccine and the world needs them
How AstraZeneca threw away its shot
AstraZeneca and the EU might have ruined Africa’s best chance out of the pandemic.
Regardless, there is a logic to this argument and if the third world show disdain for AZ, then it really is a tragedy.