NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Stefan Bogdanski said:
Po, thank you for your thoughts on this. Is it reasonable to assume that the stabilization around the no interference curve you mention would likely have more to do with human behaviour or other externalities, rather than the biology of the virus itself? Presumably, this would not happen in controlled in vitro experiments?
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Good question! I was wondering that.
 
Stefan Bogdanski said:
Po, thank you for your thoughts on this. Is it reasonable to assume that the stabilization around the no interference curve you mention would likely have more to do with human behaviour or other externalities, rather than the biology of the virus itself? Presumably, this would not happen in controlled in vitro experiments?
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As virus is a very simple semi-living form, if virus genome hasn't changed, we reasonably assume its "biology" doesn't change. The genome nucleotides change all the time but mostly only amino acid changes are meaningful. And even there are amino acid changes, if the new mutant doesn't spread out, it has little impact on what's happening nationwide (hence it's meaningful but not important). I assume PHE and other countries' CDC does full genome sequencing regularly and if some mutations start to spread (like those which define Alpha or Delta variants), then of course we should test it in vitro.

So the main view is that the 'biology' change, if there's any, would be on the human side. For example, human upper respiratory tract may have different phyisology in summer vs winter. Or, like Eric suggested last year, there might be an infection-caused herd immunity existing in the group of active people; in a period of time most those who would get it have got it, and the epidemic exhausted its fuel for now.
The issue is that it might not be long lasting; IgA doesn't last very long, new group of active people may join (summer holiday finish), and worst of all, there can be new variants.
I am optimistic that we will win this war, and we are winning it; just it might take some time. Whether we can quickly and totally get rid of it... not sure I can say it as a scientist; we need a bit grace of heaven.
 
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Chiu Lin said:
Whichever bottle you have been saving for a good occasion to open, now is as good as any to open before the next wave hit….
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This whole year, and things happened to some nice gentlemen in this forum, really remind me that 1) we don't know what will happen to our wine 2) we don't know what will happen to our drinking friends 3) we don't know what will happen to ourselves.
I don't do wine investment, I buy wine for drinking so it's easier for me to say. But I also used to keep bottles for 'important occasions in the future' and now I tend to think slightly differently.
 
Interesting video - thanks Steve.

I wondered what the panel's experience is recently with travel/transport.? The South African holiday we had planned back in January was re-scheduled for January 2022, with various bookings moved forward one year. I did not however move my flights, but took a refund which I was able to get (eventually) because BA cancelled the original flights first.

I'm feeling far from positive about whether the Jan 2022 trip will happen, but I do keep my eye on flight options, especially when BA has some sort of deal on. Last week there were some good deals for my potential dates, but I declined to book, because BA still does not offer a refund if you have to cancel due to Covid, or government rules (i.e. if they are still flying, even if you are advised not to, a refund is not offered as they have not cancelled their flight). They do offer a time-limited voucher if you cancel up to three weeks before departure. I understand the travel industry has had a torrid time of it, but I can't help feeling they would be much wiser to make all bookings refundable under those circumstances. I would certainly have booked, knowing I could get my money back rather than a voucher I had to use within a year or so.

Don't know what other airlines or transport companies are doing.
 
We're holding off booking anything beyond out Sept Tuscany jaunt. We have a few things planned (including US) but as you say unless they are refundable who wants to take the risk.
 
Infection figures up two days in a row now. Though on the actual day figures we're still tracking down. There seems to be a potential pattern in two high days and then five declining days which might explain it though that would mean a big drop tomorrow.

Both hospitalisations and deaths seemed to have been flat though for the last week or so which is good news. Let's hope that changes quickly into decline!
 
Gareth Powell said:
Infection figures up two days in a row now. Though on the actual day figures we're still tracking down. There seems to be a potential pattern in two high days and then five declining days which might explain it though that would mean a big drop tomorrow.

Both hospitalisations and deaths seemed to have been flat though for the last week or so which is good news. Let's hope that changes quickly into decline!
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Yes the figures have intrigued as they fell so dramatically given we had just opened up but I thought the other variables of schools closing, no euros and other elements all helped reduce the numbers. I expected they would go up but that’s not totally clear yet.
What is contradictory to the lower numbers we is that the actual infection rate has gone up. We also have a 10% increase of app pings, even though users are deleting, and data from sewage possibly confirming higher actual infection rates.

The sudden drop last week does also give more weight to the under 18s helping fuel the numbers and keep infections so prevalent. It further reinforces my view that if you want to reduce the pool of infection then you need to vaccinate the 12-18 group. I think they may well do this if things don’t drop enough, once they see further stats from the US and other countries who are vaccinating their young Saying that we also seem to be struggling with 18-24 year olds.
 
Mike Humphreys said:
Yes the figures have intrigued as they fell so dramatically given we had just opened up but I thought the other variables of schools closing, no euros and other elements all helped reduce the numbers. I expected they would go up but that’s not totally clear yet.
What is contradictory to the lower numbers we is that the actual infection rate has gone up. We also have a 10% increase of app pings, even though users are deleting, and data from sewage possibly confirming higher actual infection rates.

The sudden drop last week does also give more weight to the under 18s helping fuel the numbers and keep infections so prevalent. It further reinforces my view that if you want to reduce the pool of infection then you need to vaccinate the 12-18 group. I think they may well do this if things don’t drop enough, once they see further stats from the US and other countries who are vaccinating their young Saying that we also seem to be struggling with 18-24 year olds.
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There is something definite about that drop in numbers, and the cynic in me suspects human behaviour around getting tested rather than a sudden immunity.
 
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Telegraph (not the most ideologically independently newspaper) leads with an article saying official statistics show that 1/4 of patients in the Covid hospital admission stats were actually admitted for others reasons. Any doctors like to comment? I suspect that they are overplaying it and multiple factors are often involved in admissions.
 
On TV news today I believe I heard that the weekly ONS data just out shows cases up to last Saturday rising, with 1 in 65 having Covid last week compared to 1 in 75 the week before. Hospital admissions continued to rise too. We'll have to wait until next Friday to see the ONS data for this week which will confirm/challenge the decline in positive test results.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics

A roundup of the latest data and trends about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.
www.ons.gov.uk
 
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Gareth Powell said:
Both hospitalisations and deaths seemed to have been flat though for the last week or so which is good news. Let's hope that changes quickly into decline!
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I'm not sure - according to worldometer (which afact uses pukka uk gov data), trailing 7 day deaths has climbed from 53 to 71 in the week 22-29 July. It doubled in the preceding 14 days - the comparable increase in wave 2 was 13 days. The rate of increase is slowing (this time last week the doubling was more like 11 days) but again - this is consistent with the previous peak.

As @Po-yu Sung and others have pointed out - we can’t read too much into those particular data - but as I’ve ranted on far too many previous occasions, they have the benefit of no-one being able to mess with the denominator…
 
The last peak was actually a double peak with the second peak at two and a half times the level of the first. If the same pattern repeats the new second peak gives roughly 100,000 cases a day, coincidentally the level the government was floating a couple of weeks ago. Of course, we're hoping the vaccine will make the second peak considerably lower, but in the meantime hospitalisations are still rising.
 
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Leon Marks said:
I'm not sure - according to worldometer (which afact uses pukka uk gov data), trailing 7 day deaths has climbed from 53 to 71 in the week 22-29 July. It doubled in the preceding 14 days - the comparable increase in wave 2 was 13 days. The rate of increase is slowing (this time last week the doubling was more like 11 days) but again - this is consistent with the previous peak.

As @Po-yu Sung and others have pointed out - we can’t read too much into those particular data - but as I’ve ranted on far too many previous occasions, they have the benefit of no-one being able to mess with the denominator…
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If hospitalisations and deaths didn't continue to rise (as the case rate was a couple of weeks ago), that would almost be more scary, as it would be something new.
 
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