NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Yes the figures have intrigued as they fell so dramatically given we had just opened up but I thought the other variables of schools closing, no euros and other elements all helped reduce the numbers. I expected they would go up but that’s not totally clear yet.
What is contradictory to the lower numbers we is that the actual infection rate has gone up. We also have a 10% increase of app pings, even though users are deleting, and data from sewage possibly confirming higher actual infection rates.

The sudden drop last week does also give more weight to the under 18s helping fuel the numbers and keep infections so prevalent. It further reinforces my view that if you want to reduce the pool of infection then you need to vaccinate the 12-18 group. I think they may well do this if things don’t drop enough, once they see further stats from the US and other countries who are vaccinating their young Saying that we also seem to be struggling with 18-24 year olds.

There is something definite about that drop in numbers, and the cynic in me suspects human behaviour around getting tested rather than a sudden immunity.
 
Last edited:
Telegraph (not the most ideologically independently newspaper) leads with an article saying official statistics show that 1/4 of patients in the Covid hospital admission stats were actually admitted for others reasons. Any doctors like to comment? I suspect that they are overplaying it and multiple factors are often involved in admissions.
 
On TV news today I believe I heard that the weekly ONS data just out shows cases up to last Saturday rising, with 1 in 65 having Covid last week compared to 1 in 75 the week before. Hospital admissions continued to rise too. We'll have to wait until next Friday to see the ONS data for this week which will confirm/challenge the decline in positive test results.

 
Last edited:
Both hospitalisations and deaths seemed to have been flat though for the last week or so which is good news. Let's hope that changes quickly into decline!
I'm not sure - according to worldometer (which afact uses pukka uk gov data), trailing 7 day deaths has climbed from 53 to 71 in the week 22-29 July. It doubled in the preceding 14 days - the comparable increase in wave 2 was 13 days. The rate of increase is slowing (this time last week the doubling was more like 11 days) but again - this is consistent with the previous peak.

As @Po-yu Sung and others have pointed out - we can’t read too much into those particular data - but as I’ve ranted on far too many previous occasions, they have the benefit of no-one being able to mess with the denominator…
 
The last peak was actually a double peak with the second peak at two and a half times the level of the first. If the same pattern repeats the new second peak gives roughly 100,000 cases a day, coincidentally the level the government was floating a couple of weeks ago. Of course, we're hoping the vaccine will make the second peak considerably lower, but in the meantime hospitalisations are still rising.
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure - according to worldometer (which afact uses pukka uk gov data), trailing 7 day deaths has climbed from 53 to 71 in the week 22-29 July. It doubled in the preceding 14 days - the comparable increase in wave 2 was 13 days. The rate of increase is slowing (this time last week the doubling was more like 11 days) but again - this is consistent with the previous peak.

As @Po-yu Sung and others have pointed out - we can’t read too much into those particular data - but as I’ve ranted on far too many previous occasions, they have the benefit of no-one being able to mess with the denominator…
If hospitalisations and deaths didn't continue to rise (as the case rate was a couple of weeks ago), that would almost be more scary, as it would be something new.
 
The last peak was actually a double peak with the second peak at two and a half times the level of the first. If the same pattern repeats the news second peak gives roughly 100,000 cases a day, coincidentally the level the government was floating a couple of weeks ago. Of course, we're hoping the vaccine will make the second peak considerably lower, but in the meantime hospitalisations are still rising.
I don’t think we’d expect a double peak as we are not locking down. That’s what caused the drop the peak isn’t it?
 
Behavioural responses to advice seem to be out of the window. I used this week’s trip south for WIMPS as well as Glasshouse/St John/Noble Rot to assess mask wearing compliance on TFL. Probably 50% wearing masks properly. Demographics for the decliners: 2/3 seemed to be younger, ethnicity made little difference - maybe half white/half non-white, and gender maybe 60% males. Should not be surprised really. I have to feel sorry for those needing to shield but still having to travel. Looking forward to returning to rural northern climes
 
I'm definitely not one for quack remedies - like really, really not - but I was that desperate that I started taking lion's mane mushroom tablets after a friend recommended them. And although I'm a sample size of one, I do reckon that they made a difference.
I bought some lion's mane tablets after reading this but I keep forgetting to take them.
 
Last edited:

This appears to be a sensible explanation of what is currently happening.
Yes a good range of options. It does seem we need to wait another week or so to get a clearer picture. Cases still declining but reasons for that could be manifold.
 
It seems that after the football surge people have not been going back to pubs in anything like the numbers needed and plenty have thrown or are on the point of throwing in the towel. It is a great shame, but many seem to have got caught in the vicious circle of increasing prices to cover their losses which in turn puts off often cash-strapped customers. I wonder how restaurants are doing?
 
We were out in Hoxton and Dalston last night abs they were certainly not as busy as usual. Open air theatre was fun abs nearly sold out though which was at least encouraging for the artists abs producers. Soho seems to be almost back to what is was but it seems other areas are much lower. Difficult to see how many pubs can survive much longer if this is the height of summer.

A real concern is cinemas I’ve been twice now and both times it has been less than 5% full for a major release on opening night. I sadly wonder if the cinema landscape isn’t going to be hugely redrawn.
 
Perhaps a lot of people are hanging back to see what happens after July 19th, which may have the unintended effect of moving any surge forward; it could, though, be that habits have changed more permanenly, which will be difficult for many businesses relying on discretionary spending.
 
Perhaps a lot of people are hanging back to see what happens after July 19th, which may have the unintended effect of moving any surge forward; it could, though, be that habits have changed more permanently, which will be difficult for many businesses relying on discretionary spending.
What are you doing personally Tom? Nearly everyone in my circle is still being careful. That means meeting in smaller groups, preferably outside or with good ventilation and avoiding any large event.
 
I know a couple of highly intelligent people who are not getting the vaccination
And I know lots of idiots who get vaccinated (myself included...). Sometimes, the idiots get it right which is probably the way the Lord wants it, I suppose. Can't be everything for the highly intelligent...

Last night a wonderful concert by Arcadi Volodos (Schubert 894 and Brahms 118 plus lots of bis) and the open air stadium was almost full... for a reason (one of my favorite pianists...)
 
What are you doing personally Tom? Nearly everyone in my circle is still being careful. That means meeting in smaller groups, preferably outside or with good ventilation and avoiding any large event.
I'm being careful also but have attended one or two events which would have transgressed previous regulations.
 

For these individuals parosmia onset was up to 5 months post Covid.
It's taken me 18 months, but I can just about tolerate most tastes and aromas, so if anybody out there is suffering at the moment don't give up hope! We were staying at a hotel in the Lake District last week and a member of staff was a coffee expert. She used to work with Heston and was very clued up on tastes and how different tastes interacted. She had one of those "Nez du café" aroma kits (it costs a staggering £920 on amazon) and lent it to me for the evening. I was still repelled by the burnt coffee aroma, which is very common among sufferers. I do have difficulty walking into coffee shops but can tolerate a flat white. Disturbingly, I was also repelled by diacetyl, which doesn't bode well for the chardonnay's I have in my collection. However, I bought 6 bottles of Alpha Domus AD Chardonnay which I have been drinking over the past 2 years. Pre-pandemic, the wines were beautiful. 4 months ago I found one repellent, but I had the last one about 3 weeks ago and it was back to normal again, so life is good once more! I have been in contact with a Professor Barry Smith who is the lead at the London Centre for the "study of the senses" and he has a number of wine drinkers on his books. I can remember reading an article by one of Jancis Robinson's tasters at the start of the pandemic who developed a lack of taste and I've often wondered how he has fared.
 
It's taken me 18 months, but I can just about tolerate most tastes and aromas, so if anybody out there is suffering at the moment don't give up hope! We were staying at a hotel in the Lake District last week and a member of staff was a coffee expert. She used to work with Heston and was very clued up on tastes and how different tastes interacted. She had one of those "Nez du café" aroma kits (it costs a staggering £920 on amazon) and lent it to me for the evening. I was still repelled by the burnt coffee aroma, which is very common among sufferers. I do have difficulty walking into coffee shops but can tolerate a flat white. Disturbingly, I was also repelled by diacetyl, which doesn't bode well for the chardonnay's I have in my collection. However, I bought 6 bottles of Alpha Domus AD Chardonnay which I have been drinking over the past 2 years. Pre-pandemic, the wines were beautiful. 4 months ago I found one repellent, but I had the last one about 3 weeks ago and it was back to normal again, so life is good once more! I have been in contact with a Professor Barry Smith who is the lead at the London Centre for the "study of the senses" and he has a number of wine drinkers on his books. I can remember reading an article by one of Jancis Robinson's tasters at the start of the pandemic who developed a lack of taste and I've often wondered how he has fared.
Covid anosmia/parosmia seems to vary enormously in duration and severity. I know someone who's had amosmia since infection a year ago. I know of others who've had a bit of parosmia for a few weeks and then normal again. I'm guessing time eventually resolves it for most people even though I've zero expertise in this field.
 
Five-months post-Covid I thought I was back to full strength, but now, a few months later I'm not convinced. As before it seems to wax and wane, but there definitely seem to be days when I'm not getting the full taste and smell spectrum. Thankfully at no point did I develop any problems with tastes or smells suddenly becoming unpleasant. Nor did I get any 'ghost smells' - for a while, my partner kept smelling something burning.
 
Top