NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

[Steve Slatcher]

Steve,

Do we know that the Beta variant is “more deadly”?

Yeah, I think so. That is, I am sure I read it or heard it somewhere, but didn't check the evidence. If you get infected with beta the consequences are more serious than alpha or delta, but the good news is that it is less infectious than delta.

Edit: Actually the point I heard was that the vaccines we have been given protect us against the more serious consequences of catching alpha and delta, but are a lot less effective against beta. So it is more about our vaccine protection, rather than the beta variant per se.

 

[Jeremy Caan]

"numbers of people admitted to hospital or dying are also higher than this time last year".

But we may be 'nearing the "endemic equilibrium" - the point where cases are neither increasing nor falling.'

Covid cases: This summer compared with last

Case numbers are 30 times higher than at the same point last year - where might we be heading next?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Steve Slatcher]

But we may be 'nearing the "endemic equilibrium" - the point where cases are neither increasing nor falling.'

It's a rather difficult article to unpick IMO.

The bit you quoted comes from an expert who was interviewed, but the same expert is also reported to have said:
"Pretty much everybody was predicting that cases would rocket and they fell.
They sort of levelled off but are drifting up again and they're drifting up in summer when viruses spread less readily."
Which implies to me he is expecting a large increase soon, rather than equilibrium.

In context what he meant might have been clear, but the article could have explained better.

 

[Mark Palmer]

Yeah, I think so. That is, I am sure I read it or heard it somewhere, but didn't check the evidence. If you get infected with beta the consequences are more serious than alpha or delta, but the good news is that it is less infectious than delta.

Edit: Actually the point I heard was that the vaccines we have been given protect us against the more serious consequences of catching alpha and delta, but are a lot less effective against beta. So it is more about our vaccine protection, rather than the beta variant per se.

Yeah, I thought that they were all about as “deadly” as each other, just not as good at spreading as delta, hence delta seems to become the dominant variant wherever it goes.

It‘s all a bit counterintuitive, as the layman’s explanation is that there is a sort of inverse relationship between the two ie. as the virus mutates towards spreading better it tends towards becoming less “deadly”. It seems that as in many things a shorthand explanation is a useful communication model but inevitably misses some important details that can make a big difference. I did read somewhere that delta was a sort of “perfect storm” which led to it being at least as deadly as previous variants yet be an excellent spreader. The spreading ability we can take as a certainty based upon evidence from all around the world, I just wasn’t sure about what the current thinking was on its “deadliness”.

 

[Geordie Torr]

Well, after thinking that I had finally shaken off long Covid at the end of May, I'm now thinking that my celebrations were premature. My senses of taste and smell are definitely still compromised, I'm having to have a post-lunch lie down most days and my domestic auto-pilot is going haywire again. And, bizarrely, I seem to be experiencing phantom odours for the first time - I keep getting wafts of asparagus-pee smell without a spear having been consumed. It's now eight months since my infection...

 

[Jeremy Caan]

Well, after thinking that I had finally shaken off long Covid at the end of May, I'm now thinking that my celebrations were premature. My senses of taste and smell are definitely still compromised, I'm having to have a post-lunch lie down most days and my domestic auto-pilot is going haywire again. And, bizarrely, I seem to be experiencing phantom odours for the first time - I keep getting wafts of asparagus-pee smell without a spear having been consumed. It's now eight months since my infection...

Frustrating! All you can do is live healthily and drink cheap wine for a while longer.

 

[Dom Shepherd]

Well, after thinking that I had finally shaken off long Covid at the end of May, I'm now thinking that my celebrations were premature. My senses of taste and smell are definitely still compromised, I'm having to have a post-lunch lie down most days and my domestic auto-pilot is going haywire again. And, bizarrely, I seem to be experiencing phantom odours for the first time - I keep getting wafts of asparagus-pee smell without a spear having been consumed. It's now eight months since my infection...

Geordie, it seems that many people who experience parosmia & phantosmia do so months after Covid for some reason. It's supposedly part of the healing process of the olfactory nerve, but extremely frustrating (I had a very minor case which didn't last long but it was concerning at the time so I feel for you).

Have you tried smell training? You can buy kits online (cheaper on Ebay I found), and it's supposed to help. My smell/taste issues didn't last long - I took a concoction of multivits, Vitamin C, turmeric, bromelain, quercetin, probiotics and lion's mane mushroom (on your advice for the brain fog!). I also drank lemon & ginger tea as well as green tea (because coffee smelt & tasted foul to me for a while). I can't really say if any of them worked other than the fact that I got better, but I may have done without them too.

The only other thing I read online during my search for help was that ivermectin has helped people to cure both long Covid and smell & taste issues - within a short period of time too. I didn't try it so can't vouch for it personally but if you get desperate it might be worth giving it a go.

 

[George Marshall]

‘You are not a horse’: FDA tells Americans stop taking dewormer for Covid

Agency issues message after misinformation about ivermectin, a medicine used to deworm livestock, spreads on social media

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dom Shepherd]

(PDF) IVERMECTIN IN LONG-COVID PATIENTS

PDF | Retrospective Study on IVM effects in long COVID | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

www.researchgate.net

Also now being trialled by Oxford University after some promising small studies:

Ivermectin to be investigated as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in Oxford’s PRINCIPLE trial | University of Oxford

23 June 2021

www.ox.ac.uk

"Ivermectin is readily available globally, has been in wide use for many other infectious conditions so it’s a well-known medicine with a good safety profile, and because of the early promising results in some studies it is already being widely used to treat COVID-19 in several countries. By including ivermectin in a large-scale trial like PRINCIPLE, we hope to generate robust evidence to determine how effective the treatment is against COVID-19, and whether there are benefits or harms associated with its use."

 

[Geordie Torr]

Thanks Dominic. I'm going to try going back onto the lion's mane and may explore the smell training kits as well. And as Jeremy mentioned, I'll be going back onto the cheap plonk again, sadly.

 

[George Marshall]

I hope you recover swiftly Geordie

4.3 Scientific conclusion about status of evidence generation
The current evidence is not sufficient to support the use of ivermectin for COVID-19 and requires validation in larger, high quality RCTs evaluating fixed dosing schedules. At the moment, conclusions on the efficacy of ivermectin are of high uncertainty.
August 2021

https://www.eunethta.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/EUnetHTA-COVID-19-RollingCR22-v7.0.pdf

 

[Dom Shepherd]

Like I said, I am neither advising nor endorsing ivermectin, but having had taste/smell issues myself with Covid I know how frustrating they are. And I’m sure those suffering from long Covid have other horrible symptoms too.

So if it was me, and there was a safe potential treatment that has helped other people, then I would try it whether there was ‘sufficient evidence to support’ it at the current time or not.

Oxford University would not be conducting a large scale study if they didn’t think it had potential, or if smaller studies had proved it ineffective.

Each to their own, but I have a solutions-based mindset and there are plenty of alternative treatments that work for all sorts of ailments despite not having the scientific evidence to support them.

 

[Richard Zambuni]

Two and a half weeks on from the onset of symptoms my senses of smell and taste have improved greatly, although I can tell that my sense of smell is still not 100%. I know that taste and smell are intimately linked, but I seem to be able to taste better than I can smell at the moment. If the improvement continues at this rate, I should be back to normal within a month. Sorry to hear about your experience Geordie.

 

[Phil David]

After attending four Proms, a WIMPS and a football match in the last month, I'm wondering if I'm really starting to push my luck.

 

[Travis Webb]

Wow, there hasn't been a covid post for almost a week.

Double vaccination taken as a given, what other prophylactic steps can you take in preparation for coming into contact with covid? And could we please have, if possible, any recommendations accompanied with links to research papers.

Many thanks,

Travis

 

[Po-yu Sung]

Double vaccination taken as a given, what other prophylactic steps can you take in preparation for coming into contact with covid? And could we please have, if possible, any recommendations accompanied with links to research papers.

Facemask.

Of course, there is arguments about if it's wore properly, should it be compulsory, the quality.... thus lead to questions on how facemask policy work for the whole community. There are a lot of papers about that.
But your question is "what other prophylactic steps can you take in preparation for coming into contact with covid", so those arguments do not really apply. You decide to wear mask, you choose good quality of mask, and you learn to wear it correctly. I don't think we need research papers for that, though there are also many.

Household members could be another issue, you might need to educate or communicate with them about all these.

 

[Cameron Clark]

Looks like Covid is finally here to stay in Aus. It’s out of control in NSW and Victoria confirmed yesterday that they would not be able to get back to a Covid zero position.

The good news though is that the increase in infections has resulted in an increase in vaccinations. The announcement today of an extra 4 million doses in a swap deal with the UK means that the country may get to its 80% vaccination rate by the end of the year . It’s a big if though as there seems to be a split developing between the states. Those that have not had much of an issue with Covid and are enjoying a normal lifestyle don’t seem too keen on either opening up or getting vaccinated, while the 2 most important states look like they will follow the European model, with a controlled decline in Lockdowns as the vaccination rates increase. A lot of this will be posturing for the soon to be had election, but it could be that Aus ends up like America with very large differences in vaccination take up.

 

[Thom Blach]

Is anyone else expecting things to get pretty nasty again? we once more lead the world in the daily number of new cases being confirmed and the delta variant seems increasingly vaccine resistant; and yet we yesterday saw the astonishing spectacle of the government benches almost unanimously rejecting their own mask wearing advice. It's as though they don't really believe in covid at all...

 

[Leon Marks]

Is anyone else expecting things to get pretty nasty again? we once more lead the world in the daily number of new cases being confirmed and the delta variant seems increasingly vaccine resistant; and yet we yesterday saw the astonishing spectacle of the government benches almost unanimously rejecting their own mask wearing advice. It's as though they don't really believe in covid at all...

#brokenrecord the one number I follow consistently is the trailing 7 day death rate. This is clearly a lagging indicator, but has the benefit that it is most likely very accurate. ANYWAY - in the UK we seem to be gently trending upward - currently at 113 (it bobs up and down but seems to be increasing at about 5 or so per week) - for context, 5 is the number of people who die on the average day from motor vehicles.

 

[Dan Baillie]

Is anyone else expecting things to get pretty nasty again? we once more lead the world in the daily number of new cases being confirmed and the delta variant seems increasingly vaccine resistant; and yet we yesterday saw the astonishing spectacle of the government benches almost unanimously rejecting their own mask wearing advice. It's as though they don't really believe in covid at all...

Everyone seems to be expecting numbers to increase again. What's interesting is that in France numbers are falling rapidly again despite the Delta variant being prevalent and no material difference in vaccination rates. Only difference seems to be mask wearing.

 

[Dom Shepherd]

The weather across much of France has been a lot better over the past 3 weeks or so. More sunshine, summer holidays, more people outdoors.

 

[Fintan Kerr]

Everyone seems to be expecting numbers to increase again. What's interesting is that in France numbers are falling rapidly again despite the Delta variant being prevalent and no material difference in vaccination rates. Only difference seems to be mask wearing.

Which they do spectacularly well, it must be said.

I was in France for 2 weeks in August (Bordeaux and the Loire) and I was very impressed with how well everyone was managing it. Proof of vaccination was requested at even the smallest bakery and everyone seemed to be happy and living life again.

 

[Thom Blach]

Proof of vaccination was requested at even the smallest bakery and everyone seemed to be happy and living life again.

It seems to me that we are more or less back to 'normal' here. I hope that doesn't quickly become something that we regret.
The French government's success in turning round what was a far more vaccine sceptical country than the UK seems to me remarkable.

 

[Russ Sainty]

Remember the heady days of eat out to help out? Last summer it all seemed to be going back to normal.
Just saying!

 

[Phil David]

The devil is in the detail. Virtually all areas in which cases are rising sharply are in Scotland, where schools went back two or three weeks ago. I expect England and Wales will follow a similar related trajectory.