NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Brighton seems fairly well behaved, Worthing less so. My anecdotal and no doubt controversial observation is that the mask wearing rate seems to decline in an almost linear fashion towards Southampton.

I wonder whether it picks up again on its way to Bristol and Bath? :)
Depends where you shop! Waitrose and Sainsbury’s - mainly yes. JD Sports - not one in sight.
 
Given that the standard errors are reported as 10% in the reporting of influenza like illnesses and that they measured a reduction of just over 11% in the mask wearing villages compared to the control villages this study does not really inspire any confidence in the efficacy of mask wearing. As it could be they decrease by 21% or 1%.
I'm not sure where you got those numbers from amongst all the statistics presented, but I don't remember any data about mask-wearing vs non-mask-wearing per se. It was about the effectiveness of a public health intervention to promote mask-wearing. That increased the prevalence of mask-wearing, which led to a lower incidence of Covid, which was also confirmed to an extent by testing. (Even small percentage changes could make the difference between R being greater or less than 1.)

Beyond that, I really don't think I could draw too many conclusions from the quick-fire presentation of statistics in the video. I would need to read the report to see the significance of the interventions.
 
I'm not sure where you got those numbers from amongst all the statistics presented, but I don't remember any data about mask-wearing vs non-mask-wearing per se. It was about the effectiveness of a public health intervention to promote mask-wearing. That increased the prevalence of mask-wearing, which led to a lower incidence of Covid, which was also confirmed to an extent by testing. (Even small percentage changes could make the difference between R being greater or less than 1.)

Beyond that, I really don't think I could draw too many conclusions from the quick-fire presentation of statistics in the video. I would need to read the report to see the significance of the interventions.
I read the original paper Steve. From memory the stats about reduction are on page 14. I generally like to see the data first hand rather than video summaries by third parties.
 
I read the original paper Steve. From memory the stats about reduction are on page 14. I generally like to see the data first hand rather than video summaries by third parties.
The paper mentioned in the video is here:

As far as I can see, it is all about the the effect of various interventions on the prevalence of mask-wearing. The reduction of Covid infections gets mentioned only in an Appendix to the paper, and I think it is in the context of the cost-benefit analysis of mask-wearing, and there is no clear statement of the effetivenes of mask-wearing in the actual study. The 11.9% reduction mentioned at 3:33 in the video simply does not exist in the paper - in addition to skim-reading, I searched the whole paper for "11.9" and it was not there.

You are quite right about reading the original paper, which does not at all support the video's message about the importance of mask-wearing. That is not to say that mask-wearing is not important - it's just that we need to look elsewhere for evidence.
 
The paper mentioned in the video is here:

As far as I can see, it is all about the the effect of various interventions on the prevalence of mask-wearing. The reduction of Covid infections gets mentioned only in an Appendix to the paper, and I think it is in the context of the cost-benefit analysis of mask-wearing, and there is no clear statement of the effetivenes of mask-wearing in the actual study. The 11.9% reduction mentioned at 3:33 in the video simply does not exist in the paper - in addition to skim-reading, I searched the whole paper for "11.9" and it was not there.

You are quite right about reading the original paper, which does not at all support the video's message about the importance of mask-wearing. That is not to say that mask-wearing is not important - it's just that we need to look elsewhere for evidence.
Steve it does give reports of the reduction in incidence of Covid-19 symptoms on page 14 and extrapolates from that to reduction in deaths due to mask wearing from the conclusions of the study. The 11.7% is not there but you can work it out from the data. It is just it comes with a +/-10% possibility making it rather meaningless. But as you say that is not the main feature of the study.
 
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Steve it does give reports of the reduction in incidence of Covid-19 symptoms on page 14 and extrapolates from that to reduction in deaths due to mask wearing from the conclusions of the study. The 11.7% is not there but you can work it out from the data. It is just it comes with a +/-10% possibility making it rather meaningless. But as you say that is not the main feature of the study.
You must have a different document. In the PDF accessible from my link above, p14 has nothing at all to do with symptom reduction (neither the page labelled "14" nor the 14th page of the PDF).

Can you send me, or link to, the one you have? I'm starting to think I'm going crazy.
 
You must have a different document. In the PDF accessible from my link above, p14 has nothing at all to do with symptom reduction (neither the page labelled "14" nor the 14th page of the PDF).

Can you send me, or link to, the one you have? I'm starting to think I'm going crazy.
Sorry my bad on page numbers! The data is on pages 17 onwards.
 

I thought this was interesting
Luke Boxall’s comment was more so

 

I thought this was interesting
I find doing this on LinkedIn really curious. I had a look at the OP's profile and was surprised to see what should be quite data savvy work history combined with such outwardly poor data analysis in her opinion piece. Brave...
 
Well, I'm not sure I care about percentages one way or another, I'll still wear one...it has the advantage that I can scowl at people instead of trying to smile when I really don't feel like it.

My grandson (11) has tested positive, he caught it at school but none of the parents knew that one of his classmates had tested positive, they are not informing anyone. This information came too late for our Saturday night gathering when his mild headache started so we are are all waiting and testing to know whether we have caught it (highly likely as he's quite a social little chap). Meanwhile his sister who tested negative has been told to go back to school. I suppose it's at least a couple of weeks before we know if the whole family is clear, fortunately as we have no fuel we are locked down again anyway, pretty much. The local GP's surgery is closed for training tomorrow, no change there as they have been closed to patients for 18 months anyway, why bother to tell us? Seriously thinking of putting in that application for a French passport...

Sorry for the rant, based on this sort of guidance we're all going to catch it anyway, aren't we, so are masks really that relevant any more?
 
Are you sure the GP is closed? I get the impression that many are open to those that need it, but the press are spreading the rumour that they're closed! I've no idea to what degree this is the case....

It's all about the timing of when you get it, I suppose.
 
Are you sure the GP is closed? I get the impression that many are open to those that need it, but the press are spreading the rumour that they're closed! I've no idea to what degree this is the case....

It's all about the timing of when you get it, I suppose.
I've used my GP quite a lot since Covid struck, and accessibly has been vastly improved from pre-Covid days.

Ths first problem used to be that their phone was often engaged, and if not there were massive queues. Then, while their system didn't allow bookings more than a month in advance, sometimes there were no slots available in that period - in which case your only option was to show up at the surgery and claim an emergency appointment, which I did once at the suggestion of a receptionist.

Now the phone is answered promptly, and a GP calls you back within an hour or so. Around half of my issues were dealt with on the phone - if I was there in person there would only be verbal communication anyway. Otherwise, while on the phone with the GP, I would be offered a face-to-face appointment the same day. Also, very simple requests and questions are now dealt with through "email" and SMS.

I can envisage people and situations where the new system has disadvantages, but it works well for me.
 
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Ours still looks like a nuclear fallout shelter, the signs are still up and you talk to Reception through a kiosk window. They have been granted planning permission to double the size of their surgery but aren't letting anyone in as far as I can see. I'm supposed to have periodic blood tests (supposedly non-urgent though who knows, if you haven't had them?) but have been told for the second month running they aren't doing them yet..another family member has a cardiac issue that needs further investigation (according to the surgery) but we are four months now and counting...

So..no, I wouldn't say they are open in any meaningful sense. Telephone appointments are all very well for the middle aged worried well (usually that is) but if you need something looked at or need something prodded or measured I'd say my GP service is generally pretty third world. Covid is used far too often as an excuse for a problem that has been developing over the past couple of decades.
 
Went to Covent Garden last night (a spendid Rigoletto!! Superb voices orchestra and play)... The room was full and hardly anyone was wearing a mask... I would say 10 to 20%. I don't know whether we would have gone if we had known.
I (try to) understand that in Covid, an important element is the initial load you receive and, alledgedly, a mask allows you to send less load if you wear one which is a reason why wearing a mask protects other people (they have more time to develop antibodies if they are contaminated with a lower charge?) .
 
Ours still looks like a nuclear fallout shelter, the signs are still up and you talk to Reception through a kiosk window. They have been granted planning permission to double the size of their surgery but aren't letting anyone in as far as I can see. I'm supposed to have periodic blood tests (supposedly non-urgent though who knows, if you haven't had them?) but have been told for the second month running they aren't doing them yet..another family member has a cardiac issue that needs further investigation (according to the surgery) but we are four months now and counting...

So..no, I wouldn't say they are open in any meaningful sense. Telephone appointments are all very well for the middle aged worried well (usually that is) but if you need something looked at or need something prodded or measured I'd say my GP service is generally pretty third world. Covid is used far too often as an excuse for a problem that has been developing over the past couple of decades.
That sounds poor. Have you actually spoken to a Doctor about the blood tests? You really should.
 
Went to Covent Garden last night (a spendid Rigoletto!! Superb voices orchestra and play)... The room was full and hardly anyone was wearing a mask... I would say 10 to 20%. I don't know whether we would have gone if we had known.
I (try to) understand that in Covid, an important element is the initial load you receive and, alledgedly, a mask allows you to send less load if you wear one which is a reason why wearing a mask protects other people (they have more time to develop antibodies if they are contaminated with a lower charge?) .
I am regularly astonished that no one seems to even expect precautions still to be taken. I am still keen to avoid infection if at all possible, old fashioned as that may sound.
 
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