NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

I see looking at the government statistics my local area has over 400/1000000 and a few miles away in Ipswich over 700/100000. Yet I’m heartened by the general treads shown here show a slow increase in cases until last week, now there a 50% in cases, rise in hospital admissions but no deaths.

I hear local schools are hit hard, I guess this is the increase in cases etc I see in the figures. A blip to be expected post the school returning in September?
What’s the take on where we are in the pandemic? A blip or worrying launch pad for a winter of trouble?
 
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I have to say I think it's worrying because the schools incubator combines with people returning to the office, which will act as the mechanism for spread. While people were WFH then the virus was dispersed and had nowhere to go but now would have a straight path of transmission
 
Distanciation, wash hands, masks... should not be for the birds. Why not ask children to wash hands between lessons... wear masks in most dangerous intervals (not at all time...)... I know this upsets people who like single solve all solutions... but come on, a bit of discipline and common sense actions do reduce the ratio. Of course, this requires leadership...

Mitigation is important
 
Distanciation, wash hands, masks... should not be for the birds. Why not ask children to wash hands between lessons... wear masks in most dangerous intervals (not at all time...)... I know this upsets people who like single solve all solutions... but come on, a bit of discipline and common sense actions do reduce the ratio. Of course, this requires leadership...

Mitigation is important

I’ve always found it surprising that these mitigation’s aren’t applied. Such small things.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-and-why-this-may-not-last?

"On Thursday, the UK reported more than 45,000 new coronavirus cases – the most since mid-July – and more than 800 deaths were reported in the past seven days. Hospitalisations are rising, with one-fifth of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients, and the latest figures showed an estimated 200,000 pupils absent from school. The UK is faring far worse than its European neighbours, with a rate of deaths per million people nearly triple those seen in France, Germany and Italy."

So we'll be serving our guests lunch in the garden today as usual. Stew from a big cast iron pot is quite warming and the wine is never too warm.
 
It's amazing how news management can impose experimental status upon us without our realising. Let us hope that the experiment works, but I'm still at least hoping to avoid infection.
 
So we are reinforcing masks at work. Issuing memos etc. I’m not the only one concerned about the rising cases.
I wonder if at half term they’ll be a change in advise, a natural time.
 
Another thing we should keep an eye on is the new variant, so-called delta plus. If we see its occupation ratio increase rapidly then it is more competitive, hence worths concern.
Again, the more cases we have, the higher chance we have new strains.
 
The combination of the very high infection rate, hugely increased admissions of the double vaccinated and astonishing personal and governmental complacency suggests to me that we may very well soon be back to square one, though I suppose one could at least argue that flat denial is an effective response.
 
Morocco has just banned flights from UK because our Covid rate is so high.

But the health secretary said today we are not yet at the point of needing to make masks mandatory or bringing in other extra measures and instead we should rely on individual responsibility.

Given our rapidly increasing infection and hospitalisation rates, compared to other European countries, I hope Sajid Javid is basing this reluctance on science.
 
Morocco has just banned flights from UK because our Covid rate is so high.

But the health secretary said today we are not yet at the point of needing to make masks mandatory or bringing in other extra measures and instead we should rely on individual responsibility.

Given our rapidly increasing infection and hospitalisation rates, compared to other European countries, I hope Sajid Javid is basing this reluctance on science.
They have also banned other EU countries as well. I’m also not sure we have a rapidly rising hospital admission rate. More like small increases. I do hope HMG continue to rely on individual responsibility as there is no justification at all for any form of lockdown or more punitive measures given the data.
 
When we hit and came off that spike in new cases in July I think I opined that there would be a second, much higher peak, in due course. We're now rapidly approaching the July peak and clearly heading higher. Nothing clever in the prediction, it was simply based on the chart pattern in the latter part of 2020.
 
Ps not sure I’d go with the science either give that every scenario they (SAGA et al) have predicted this year has been way above what has actually resulted. It really does not give much confidence to their modelling at all. Perhaps the best thing would be to take their lowest predictions and half then as that seems more accurate than anything else. Depressing really you’d hope we’d be a little better than this over 18 months in.
 
Ps not sure I’d go with the science either give that every scenario they (SAGA et al) have predicted this year has been way above what has actually resulted. It really does not give much confidence to their modelling at all. Perhaps the best thing would be to take their lowest predictions and half then as that seems more accurate than anything else. Depressing really you’d hope we’d be a little better than this over 18 months in.
It would help if he explained the rationale for inaction, in the context of European comparisons.
 
Perhaps the best thing would be to take their lowest predictions and halve them as that seems more accurate than anything else.
I'm not entirely sure that your predictions earlier in this thread have proven particularly perspicacious, Gareth.
I hope Sajid Javid is basing this reluctance on science.
Javid said the other day that he would not wear a mask in a railway carriage even if asked to by a fellow occupant. It's as scientific as not wearing masks in Parliament.

you’d hope we’d be a little better than this over 18 months in.
I'm afraid it's blindingly obvious where this is all going. I too had hoped we'd be a little better than this over 18 months in but in fairness it wasn't an expectation.
 
I'm not entirely sure that your predictions earlier in this thread have proven particularly perspicacious, Gareth.
Nor have yours Tom but then neither us is paid vast sums by the Government to advise and provide accurate models on these matters. The simple fact is SAGE has consistently overstated, sometimes vastly, the direction and impact of the virus. This is more than troubling as they are the data providers for the government and they are simply not up to the job.
 
It would help if he explained the rationale for inaction, in the context of European comparisons.
Well to take France they have a higher ICU occupancy and a slightly lower hospital occupancy. Italy on the other hand are about a third of those figures. Germany is nearly reaching the same level of hospitalisations and has slightly more people hospitalised then we do and has a fairly high death rate as well and has more people in ICU than we do, though of course Germany population is higher than ours. So really the picture is far less stark than it was this time last year. Our reported infection rates are much much higher but then we test far more people and that statistic is really pretty irrelevant now compared to hospitalisation, ICU occupancy and deaths.
 
Well to take France they have a higher ICU occupancy and a slightly lower hospital occupancy. Italy on the other hand are about a third of those figures. Germany is nearly reaching the same level of hospitalisations and has slightly more people hospitalised then we do and has a fairly high death rate as well and has more people in ICU than we do, though of course Germany population is higher than ours. So really the picture is far less stark than it was this time last year. Our reported infection rates are much much higher but then we test far more people and that statistic is really pretty irrelevant now compared to hospitalisation, ICU occupancy and deaths.
His job should include bringing me along with him by convincingly explaining his workings. By not explaining, he's leaving a credibility gap and Gareth you end up trying to explain to me in his stead. This is happening across the country as people scrabble around the internet trying to fill in the gaps.
 
His job should include bringing me along with him by convincingly explaining his workings. By not explaining, he's leaving a credibility gap and Gareth you end up trying to explain to me in his stead. This is happening across the country as people scrabble around the internet trying to fill in the gaps.
Yes it's a shame and not really the best way to proceed as you say, but I guess at least they are consistent in not providing this sort of information or much information at all. I'm guessing they have gamed this out with the electorate and have concluded that most people aren't bothered, which would also be a shame. Do you know if anyone in the EU briefs differently?
 
Are our France-resident forumites able to comment on this - is the French state briefing the population more clearly, particularly are they explaining how they reached their policy judgements in a consistent and credible way?
 
France daily latest :6465 new cases, 26 deaths, 1026 in reanimation, 48 cases/100000 inhabitants, 6465 in hospital
UK daily latest: 49139 new cases, 179 deaths, 7891 in hospital, 600-700 cases/100000 inhabitants

Now France and UK not aligned with regard to Covid wave so, there were moments when France deaths were much higher than UK and this will happen again in the future.

Only comparable are the number of patients in hospital I suppose. And vaccinations are about the same. Same population as well. Also, note UK deaths only include people dying within 28 days of positive test.

Compare the number of deaths to number of deaths on the road (about 3000... a year) and it tells us not to be complacent... Containing the R through hygiene measures such as washing hands is not stupid... 600-700/100000 cases per day may indicate complacency...
 
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