Thanks for the link Antoine very useful.Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO
(please, scroll down the page to the 4 lines with England, Scotland, Wales, and NI excess deaths statistics (in %), they are eloquent).
These deaths statistics have been collected for many years (before covid) and are difficult to manipulate.
The data for the 4 nations show excess deaths in England (in percentage) were much higher than in other UK nations in 2020. This is an irrefutable fact at macro level
(we also know excess deaths in 2021 will look different for England versus other nations as a consequence of 2020 as ED are measured versus 5 past years average)
To pretend precautions are meaningless is absurd as it has been proven on micro, medium and large and international levels and is scientifically substantiated that precautions do work.
Of course, given the avalanche of data, analysis and hidden agendas, it is always possible to extract very partial data to prove once point.
Indeed - I was thinking that although lots of stats are out there, they're very tricky to analyse and compare (between nations or within nations). Certainly the amount of time that people here have is not sufficient to draw meangingful conclusions. However, there must surely be some wel-respected stats analysts out there who have done the work and published it (including all workings) by now. I feel that as a population, we hardly know anything more about Covid and how to avoid it than we did at the beginning.To draw the conclusion you are drawing Antoine would it not be necessary to do a covariate analysis of excess deaths factoring in age, vulnerability, % in care home etc, lifestyle, and maybe some other relevant factors too?
Joel,To draw the conclusion you are drawing Antoine would it not be necessary to do a covariate analysis of excess deaths factoring in age, vulnerability, % in care home etc, lifestyle, and maybe some other relevant factors too?
Fair enough if you weren’t responding to the point about whether we should be reimposing restrictions today or not. One point though, I didn’t state that “all is due to a delay in 12-15 year old vaccinations”. I believe that’s by far the biggest driver here (and significantly more impactful than mask wearing and other restrictions) but not “all” of the explanation.Dan,
I was not strictly responding to your post and to a very specific study which is open to many challenges (are these 4 nations at the same stage of a wave? same climate?... hundreds of questions...)... This is for sure!
As for your conclusion that relaxation of restriction does not have an impact while all is due to a delay in 12-15 year olds vaccinations... I would suggest these would require to include many other countries as well as recording many parameters to support this assertion... this study seems a bit UK centered if you want my opinion with nations in different circumstances. As I said before there will be times when some EU countries will have higher problems or lower problems.
There is - you get better protection. But there is not enough evidence to say the same is true if you get infected AFTER vaccination. Tim Spector mentioned it in one of his videos.I wonder if there's a compound effect from having had Covid and then the jabs?
Dunno. Could be something to do with when the data was collected and the scarcity of unvaccinated people in that period?Odd that they chose to state 12 months for the without-vaccination whereas it was 6 months for everything else. Would be interesting to see the 6 month % as well.
Considering the efficacy percentages quoted after clinical trials, it must be the latter.What does protection percentage relate to? Hospitalisation on regular exposure to virus? Or is it symptom development? I'm assuming the latte
I'm not sure Tim Spector has any inside knowledge on this but he suggested it was vaccination centre capacity, partly caused by volunteers dropping out.I'm puzzled why the roll-out of boosters has appeared to be so slow.
I've no knowledge, I'm afraid. For what it's worth, my second jab was in February. Given I look after covid and immunosuppressed patients, I'd have thought I'd have been a priority for their sake. (I.e. as for kids, the urgency to jab me is to protect someone else.)Is the booster roll-out slow, at least in part, because of the requirement to wait six months after the second injection?
Apparently the invitations are not always being sent as soon as they could be after 6 months. But you could try booking yourself in without an invitation, if you are eligible, or indeed just turn up at a vaccination centre. As I have one very close by, I think I'll just try droppjng in when passing, as it is less hassle.Is the booster roll-out slow, at least in part, because of the requirement to wait six months after the second injection?