NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

France daily latest :6465 new cases, 26 deaths, 1026 in reanimation, 48 cases/100000 inhabitants, 6465 in hospital
UK daily latest: 49139 new cases, 179 deaths, 7891 in hospital, 600-700 cases/100000 inhabitants

Now France and UK not aligned with regard to Covid wave so, there were moments when France deaths were much higher than UK and this will happen again in the future.

Only comparable are the number of patients in hospital I suppose. And vaccinations are about the same. Same population as well. Also, note UK deaths only include people dying within 28 days of positive test.

Compare the number of deaths to number of deaths on the road (about 3000... a year) and it tells us not to be complacent... Containing the R through hygiene measures such as washing hands is not stupid... 600-700/100000 cases per day may indicate complacency...
The deaths are just hospital deaths for France. Do you known if they daily or date reported? Not easy to compare deaths when France don't report outside hospitals in their figures. As you say deaths and hospitalisations in France has been higher for much longer over the summer whereas we've been pretty flat thought rising slowly now.
 
Some good news, well for a few of us. At midnight tonight after a cumulative 262 days in lockdown, Melbourne gets a bit more freedom. Its not a full freedom, as you are still not allowed to leave the metropolitan area, but at least the curfew will have ended, you can travel anywhere in town you like and restaurants are opening for the fully vaccinated. Its going to be another 14 days though before anyone can indulge in retail therapy or get a haircut.

I could be tempted to visit 1 of my favourite winebars, but the number of cases of covid have, in Australian terms, rocketed (2k a day for a population of 5 million) and if we follow the path of Denmark, then the authorities are expecting a dip for a few weeks followed by a notable increase. I am intending on keeping my distance until that next wave has come and gone. That may be tricky to judge though as the more careful people there are, the longer it will take for the wave to happen. Even though everything will be open from the 5th Nov a lot of companies are still expecting their staff to work from home rather than mixing in the office.

Vaccination rates, which were a national disgrace a few months ago, have increased greatly with Sydney on track for 90%+ fully vaccinated and Melbourne hitting 80% around Nov 2nd. The other states are lagging behind, but that is due to the fact that they have managed to keep covid out and so the urgency in the population is not there.

Dont remember reading much about it on this thread - it is a long one - but the government has also received 15K doses of sotrovimab, which apparently has a large effect on the death rate of Covid patients (approx 80% less likely to die). Not sure how much of this is rolled out over the UK and Europe, but availability could explain the differing death rates across the UK and Europe.
 
France daily latest :6465 new cases, 26 deaths, 1026 in reanimation, 48 cases/100000 inhabitants, 6465 in hospital
UK daily latest: 49139 new cases, 179 deaths, 7891 in hospital, 600-700 cases/100000 inhabitants

Now France and UK not aligned with regard to Covid wave so, there were moments when France deaths were much higher than UK and this will happen again in the future.

Only comparable are the number of patients in hospital I suppose. And vaccinations are about the same. Same population as well. Also, note UK deaths only include people dying within 28 days of positive test.

Compare the number of deaths to number of deaths on the road (about 3000... a year) and it tells us not to be complacent... Containing the R through hygiene measures such as washing hands is not stupid... 600-700/100000 cases per day may indicate complacency...


Singapore daily latest: 3862 new cases, 18 deaths, 1718 in hospitals
Singapore population: 5.4m UK population: 68.3m
Our statistics are worse than UK in terms of deaths and hospitalization and we have 82.4% vaccinated vs 67.5% vaccinated in UK.
 
But the health secretary said today we are not yet at the point of needing to make masks mandatory or bringing in other extra measures and instead we should rely on individual responsibility.
In a situation when school is the driving force of this new peak (since late September), I am not sure his "individual responsibility" arguement can land well. What individual responsibility pupils can hold and what parents can do in this case?
 
What's going on there that's causing the problem?
Is it delta or a new variant?
One possibility: we have very high vaccination rate in elderly group, which is not necessarily the case in SG even their total vaccination rate seems higher.

By last month:
"Among elderly age 70 and above, the vaccination rate was 85 percent"

Whereas in the UK, back in 27th June, people over 70s are over 95% fully vaccinated.

10% difference in the most risky group can contribute quite a bit in hospital and death number.
 
What's going on there that's causing the problem?

Is it delta or a new variant?

Almost 100% delta variant.

Singapore has the 3rd highest population density in the world, that is probably a contributing factor but does not explain why our cases are so much higher than cities like Tokyo and Osaka. We also have higher vaccination rates than Japan.
 
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One possibility: we have very high vaccination rate in elderly group, which is not necessarily the case in SG even their total vaccination rate seems higher.

By last month:
"Among elderly age 70 and above, the vaccination rate was 85 percent"

Whereas in the UK, back in 27th June, people over 70s are over 95% fully vaccinated.

10% difference in the most risky group can contribute quite a bit in hospital and death number.

Our vaccination rates for over 60 years old are about 90% now but definitely not as high as 95% in UK.
 
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It will be interesting to see if masks at more common in the chamber. As Javid made a specific appeal.
I heard about the government's "plan B" a lot but only read what it is today:

1. facemask mandate -- why not do it now? What's the problem?
2. power to introduce vaccine passport -- why not do it now? What's the problem?
3. encourage to work from home -- are people back to office in massive scale already?
4. communicating the need for caution -- what?

Is that the plan B which HMG and media make a big deal on, as if it's a huge restriction and sacrifice?
 
I heard about the government's "plan B" a lot but only read what it is today:

1. facemask mandate -- why not do it now? What's the problem?
2. power to introduce vaccine passport -- why not do it now? What's the problem?
3. encourage to work from home -- are people back to office in massive scale already?
4. communicating the need for caution -- what?

Is that the plan B which HMG and media make a big deal on, as if it's a huge restriction and sacrifice?
The plan b should be plan A IMO
There’s talk of plan C being cancel Christmas, great just let me know before I buy all those expensive presents
 
The deaths are just hospital deaths for France. Do you known if they daily or date reported? Not easy to compare deaths when France don't report outside hospitals in their figures. As you say deaths and hospitalisations in France has been higher for much longer over the summer whereas we've been pretty flat thought rising slowly now.
Your statement is incorrect Gareth! 26 is the addition of 21 deaths in Hospital and 5 others. The others are collected twice a week so the 5 represent 3 or 4 days. They are not ignored. However, in both countries, numbers vary a lot day to day because of reporting.
UK overall, despite getting the pandemic later than Western EU, despite having vaccinated earlier and despite understating the number of deaths by about 25% with the 4 weeks death limit is still much higher. This is not surprising given the very directive policies adopted by Macron and the laissez faire adopted by Boris.
This is confirmed by excess deaths statistics UK is very much ahead especially in 2020. The difference is less in 2021 as the 2020 deaths data are included in the 5 years average serving as a basis for calculating excess deaths (as I said, impact is over 20000 deaths since excess deatths were about 110000 in 2020 so 1/5 is 22000).

While opinions vary, the facts remain the facts and the consequence of deliberate policies despite UK undisputed scientific leadership.
 
Telegraph reporting today re an Italian study showing the average age of people dying of covid having been double vaccinated is 85 and with 5 pre-existing conditions. Same stats for those unvaccinated is 79 and 4 pre-existing conditions.
 
Good summary by Ros Atkins on the BBC news website of the state of play in the UK. One notable point in it was a comment that there wasn't a meaningful difference in infection rates between England, Scotland, Wales and NI despite there being some significant differences in restrictions in Scotland re vaccine passports, mask wearing indoors etc.
 
Good summary by Ros Atkins on the BBC news website of the state of play in the UK. One notable point in it was a comment that there wasn't a meaningful difference in infection rates between England, Scotland, Wales and NI despite there being some significant differences in restrictions in Scotland re vaccine passports, mask wearing indoors etc.
This time it's different.
 
Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO
(please, scroll down the page to the 4 lines with England, Scotland, Wales, and NI excess deaths statistics (in %), they are eloquent).
These deaths statistics have been collected for many years (before covid) and are difficult to manipulate.

The data for the 4 nations show excess deaths in England (in percentage) were much higher than in other UK nations in 2020. This is an irrefutable fact at macro level
(we also know excess deaths in 2021 will look different for England versus other nations as a consequence of 2020 as ED are measured versus 5 past years average)

To pretend precautions are meaningless is absurd as it has been proven on micro, medium and large and international levels and is scientifically substantiated that precautions do work.

Of course, given the avalanche of data, analysis and hidden agendas, it is always possible to extract very partial data to prove once point.
 
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