NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Location
UK
How many people are supposed to be isolating in Britain today? If there are half a million who are positive, and each has 6 contacts who should be isolating *, then I guess we just cannot be knocking on 3 million doors every day for a fortnight to check they are doing so. I guess that's what I meant by Resources, rather than money.

* Of course a small fraction of contacts are actually being traced and contacted currently so its probably nothing like 3 million, but if the system was working, those millions would need to be monitored in some way.

In Australia they are saying that their track and trace will only work if they have small numbers of new cases. I'm not sure how many that means, but something like 10 or 20 per day. They get in touch with the contacts of the case, plus the contacts of the contacts. That could be a big number for just one case (100?) It seems to be totally impossible with our numbers.

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Location
UK
Ed,

I'm amazed that you can take a point like mine about fines working in Australia and then totally disregard the fact that they worked there. You cone up with counter arguments, like poor people don't care about fines, the prison's are full, courts are affected by social distancing laws and so on without thinking about the initial argument you are fighting against.

Seriously, do you think Australia doesn't have to contend with the same issues? They do. They have these issues, too. Yet the fine system worked. Yes it may take longer and be more problematic here, but we don't live in a parallel universe where what happens in other countries has no bearing on what is possible here.

You really don't want to even consider that lockdown might be workable, do you?

That makes me a fool for trying to argue with you. :(
 
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How many people are supposed to be isolating in Britain today? If there are half a million who are positive, and each has 6 contacts who should be isolating *, then I guess we just cannot be knocking on 3 million doors every day for a fortnight to check they are doing so. I guess that's what I meant by Resources, rather than money.
Some checking could be done by phone. We have plenty of human resources too. Council workers? Military? Volunteers? Furloughed workers? I think the problem is not so much resources as our inability to get ourselves organized.

The phoning and knocking at doors does not have to be enforcement only. It could also be used to check on the welfare of those isolating.
 
Ed,

I'm amazed that you can take a point like mine about fines working in Australia and then totally disregard the fact that they worked there. You cone up with counter arguments, like poor people don't care about fines, the prison's are full, courts are affected by social distancing laws and so on without thinking about the initial argument you are fighting against.

Seriously, do you think Australia doesn't have to contend with the same issues? They do. They have these issues, too. Yet the fine system worked. Yes it may take longer and be more problematic here, but we don't live in a parallel universe where what happens in other countries has no bearing on what it's possible here.

You really don't want to even consider that lockdown might be workable, do you?

That makes me a fool for trying to argue with you. :(

Lockdowns have worked in countries with wide scale compliance and/or effective Testing and Tracing systems. We have neither. Until someone gets a handle on the latter, we’re going around in circles for ever more. There should be a Minister directly responsible for delivering this single task. Not the telephone lady.

Tony O’Leary and Tony Blair have both given media interviews on this topic today. it’s hard to disagree with anything they’ve said or suggested.

Kids aren’t put off from holding raves in warehouses by fines or threat of jail, as they know policing numbers work in their favour. Look at illegal drug use for reference. There simply aren’t enough officers to take them on. The same applies for anyone planning a Xmas lunch for 20. No one is in a position to stop them.
 
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Tom Cannavan

Administrator
Lockdowns have worked in countries with wide scale compliance and/or effective Testing and Tracing systems. We have neither. Until someone gets a handle on the latter, we’re going around in circles for ever more. There should be a Minister directly responsible for delivering this single task. Not the telephone lady.

Kids aren’t put off from holding raves in warehouses by fines or threat of jail, as they know policing numbers work in their favour. Look at illegal drug use for reference. There simply aren’t enough officers to take them on. The same applies for anyone planning a Xmas lunch for 20. No one is in a position to stop them.

Ed, my point too that we do not have the resources to police everyone, so it comes down to taking responsibility for our own actions. I understand that 19 or 20 year olds might be unconcerned, and there will be a certain percentage of those who ignore the advice for other reasons, but is it too late now, after all the confusion and mixed-signals, to make the messaging more effective? Maybe it is, but as we are basically back with the orginal message of "stay home, protect the NHS; save lives", shouldn't that at least be the message? At the press briefing on Saturday the much less thought-provoking "hands face space" message was still the one being promoted.
 
Test track and trace needs to be up and running asap. I've said this, repeatedly and repeating others for a life time, well. March, which seems the same.
I don't care if it's difficult or expensive. It not as difficult or expends the alternative. Which is continued lockdown and death.
The messaging is the next thing. If focused and consistent it should keep the number of isolation breakers down. And for those who don't, fines and confinement.
There were about 340000 tests carried out on 29th October and there were 480000 available. If we aren't on top of it, it's not the number of tests but what we do with them. Compare this with March when we had next to no tests.

I will say this number sounds high, but my friends in hospital and is tested every day. Another has a mother in care and they are tested regularly. So there's a large number standard testing situations.
 
Location
UK
Ed,

You still avoid my main point. Why is Australia so different to the UK in your eyes. Aussies are pretty independent people who don't like being told what to do. Ned Kelly is their national hero!

If it works in Australia why not in the UK?
 
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Tom Cannavan

Administrator
Last week while buying some Adblue in a petrol station in Burgundy, I had to experience the owner being very rude to me for wearing a mask in his shop. Not necessarily representative, but there are idiots everywhere.

Maybe its a gas station thing: I noted last week that when I went inside the shop to pay, the person before and the person after did not put a mask on. The guy behind the till (and a perspex screen) honestly didn't bat an eyelid.
 
Location
UK
At around 25,000 new cases today plus their contacts and the contacts of those contacts, that's possibly 2.5 million interviews needed every day. If each interview took 20 minutes, that's around 800,000 hours per day. Around 100,000 people would be needed per day for 365 days per year. That's a heck of a big effort.

Unfortunately, if many of the cases and contacts refused to comply with a 2 week quarantine, this whole effort would be pretty much in vain as the virus would still be passed on. Game over.

Alternatively, we can go down the US route. They've lost 231,000 lives and are starting to admit defeat. Neatly a quarter of a million death and you ain't seen nothin' yet? Tragic.

In other spheres of life how do we enforce the rules? Punishments. Prison for serious crimes. Fines for lesser offenses. Did anybody ever suggest we stop finding speeding drivers? Are we planning on stopping imprisonment for murder because the jails are full or that social distancing is reducing the number of people going to court?

Let's not try to reinvent the wheel. Simply look at what works elsewhere and implemen it. Polite request aren't enough.
 
At around 25,000 new cases today plus their contacts and the contacts of those contacts, that's possibly 2.5 million interviews needed every day.

If my maths is correct that's 100 people per positive patient. Can't see it being that. Most only give 10 max I heard. You have to be close contact for 15 minutes. If you get test done quickly contacts of contacts will not be needed.
Anyway the system can't be 100% it's about driving down infection to the point when we can control it better.
 
Just saw this paper from our school:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30457-6/fulltext

Figure 1D kind of explain why people need to stay in quarantine or isolation for some days more even after they tested negative.
And the whole article uses math model to conclude why track and trace is very important, if not essential.

To slightly clarify, Taiwanese police doesn't go check the person unless the person lost contact. And my understanding is that it doesn't happen a lot; the police is not busy chasing people outdoor. It can be because civil responsibility, or simply that people would need to pay the price if they are not responsible. On the other hand, Taiwan never really has large outbreak anyway so all the quarantine checks can put their focus on travellers. South Korea is the country that without a national lockdown, crashed the virus transmission from large domestic outbreaks to around 100 cases per day this week. It's not easy I have to acknowledge, but it's doable.
 
Ultimately the problem seems to be lack of a shared belief of how dangerous Covid is. Many people breaking self-isolation rules simply don't believe they are posing a risk. How can we break that? Add to that a general belief in the incompetency of the testing and isolation process and it's hardly surprising that tackling this by consent is a non-starter.
 
Many people breaking self-isolation rules simply don't believe they are posing a risk. How can we break that?
Not just self-isolation, but other Covid regs too. It's not easy.

Back in the 70s it was the same with drink-driving - many people pushed the law to the limit, and beyond. I guess it is a question of convincing a critical mass of people, which can then exert peer pressure. Call it education or propaganda according to your views, but that is the way to do it.

It is also essential to make sure those in positions of power and influence comply. There should be zero tolerance of any breaches.
 
Not just self-isolation, but other Covid regs too. It's not easy.

Back in the 70s it was the same with drink-driving - many people pushed the law to the limit, and beyond. I guess it is a question of convincing a critical mass of people, which can then exert peer pressure. Call it education or propaganda according to your views, but that is the way to do it.
Exactly - drink-driving is a good analogy.
"I've only had a couple. I'll be fine - not far to go home, I'm not like those complete nutters out there"
"Just back from Paris, but I didn't go to any restaurants that were heaving, and I avoided the Metro. It's been 4 days and I need to quickly pop to M&S to get some ready meals"
 

Tom Cannavan

Administrator
Back in the 70s it was the same with drink-driving - many people pushed the law to the limit, and beyond. I guess it is a question of convincing a critical mass of people, which can then exert peer pressure. Call it education or propaganda according to your views, but that is the way to do it..

Steve, I really (really) would be the last person to say it normally, but of course a lot of that relied on other people reporting drink drivers - seeing someone stagger into a car from the pub or following them as the weave along the road. As well, of course, as the obvious accidents and speeding stops that are followed by a breath test. So do we need more of a whistle-blower culture? Oh, that makes me so uncomfortable....
 
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