The big 'danger' must surely be the 9 million 18 - 29 year-olds who are so far not vaccinated, now taking a very reasonable decision (on one level) not to have any vaccine, thus potentially keeping the R much higher than it might be.
Interestingly, many French are at odds with Macron on this, I quote a little taster from a web article in "Le Figaro" a few weeks ago...."La France est malade. Depuis 150 ans, elle souffre d’un étrange mal, peu étudié par les psychiatres et les infectiologues, méconnu des épidémiologistes. Ce mal, c’est la «névrose allemande», une maladie qui touche uniquement les élites et les enferme dans une forme de suivisme et de fascination névrotique à l’égard de notre voisin germanique"I agree with the thrust of what you say Jonathan, but surely Macron of all people should have factored in the French context, rather than allowing himself to be quoted as saying the AZ vaccine is ineffective even when it was obvious there was a general supply problem - and that was only weeks ago
Leadership matters, and leadership has responsibilities-Macron is responsible for the death toll in France just as surely as Johnson is responsible for the death toll in the UK and to claim otherwise is to deny politics.I dare to point out that Macron has IMO at least somewhat contributed to the current mess in France...
But are they to blame? (rhetorical question)
Even if a causal link is proved between the AZ vaccine and blood clots, the risk is still lower than many other routine medical procedures. General anaesthetic carries a fatality risk of five per million - I've never heard of anyone refusing it because they might die.
For all deaths. That's what presidents and Prime Ministers sign up for, as good ones willingly concede.For excess deaths certainly, but then one has to define a baseline of certain deaths and that is fraught with complexity. At the very least they should own the obvious mistakes. BJ does that sometimes, I’ve yet to see Macron doing that.
I think part of the problem is although we have gross statistics on chances of dying from AZ blood clot and from Covid-19, those are overall, and we know that certain factors greatly increase the risk of dying, e.g., diabetes for Covid-19. But we don't have statistics that break down the odds of dying by those risk types. Thus, one really can't make an informed decision at this point.Even if a causal link is proved between the AZ vaccine and blood clots, the risk is still lower than many other routine medical procedures. General anaesthetic carries a fatality risk of five per million - I've never heard of anyone refusing it because they might die.
On the basis that a long haul flight has the same risk, will you be flying to Europe again or coming by boat?Not sure what I will do if I get offered the chance to take the AZ. The chance of a side effect may be small, but the chance of me getting Covid is tiny and I can’t see any reason to chance it if there is a safer alternative on the way.
It's not clear how much of a sex difference in AZ clot risk there is: "79 cases occurred in 51 women and 28 men, aged from 18 to 79 years. It should be noted that more women have been vaccinated with Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca than men." MHRA issues new advice, concluding a possible link between COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca and extremely rare, unlikely to occur blood clotsGlobal statistics are meaningless, especially when the risk of covid is so much lower for young people than for old people, so you have to look at the risk per age tranche: copied and pasted
"For instance, the UK reports a mere 79 blood clot cases from the AZ vaccine out of 20 million vaccinations, of whom 19 died.
That, of course, doesn’t make the AZ vaccine “safe”. Rather, it can be deemed safe enough for general use. But then, there is another factor to consider. The risk-benefit ratio is not the same for all ages. The chances of suffering a fatal blood clot a higher in the younger age groups. In particular, 18-29 year-olds have been cited – and it is this group which has a low risk of suffering serious harm from Covid-19.
People within the 20-29 age group (with low exposure risk) have a risk of 0.8 per 100,000 of being admitted to an ICU compared with a 1.1 per 100,000 of suffering harm from an AZ vaccine."
I have not checked the numbers but the point is directionnaly correct: The young have low risk of Covid damage, the young females have a relatively high risk of blood clot which means what is right for the general population is wrong for young females (the stat above is for both male and female). Of course, there is the added complexity of herd immunity.
However, it can be safely concluded that the solution is to inject the young female population an alternative vaccine such as the Pfizer (for instance RNA based) which does not show the same risk of blood clot . It will allow to save lives and the young population will feel safer to get vaccinated which is the target to reach herd immunity.
Drawing quick conclusion from general statistics is often wrong. In this case, it is absolutely wrong and countries across the world have been right to advise alternative vaccines for young females. I believe 30 years old is a limit that should be increased but then you get the issue of supply of alternatives to AZ.
I’ll be flying Bill. Unlike the vaccine, I don’t really have an alternative. That’s the key - just wait a bit and there will be other options, so why take a risk, even if it’s small. The Melbourne bloodclot case received a lot of coverage here and the Govt, to their credit, have again acted quickly.On the basis that a long haul flight has the same risk, will you be flying to Europe again or coming by boat?
My ex seems to be in that camp and choosing to ignore requests from NHS to get jabbed (5 so far) using the excuse of not living where she is NHS registered. I am often send videos and reading matter which I studiously ignore. One mutual FB friend even loopier but to repeat any of his views would get this thread shut down by TC. I take the view that ignoring those who will not listen is the only way.I have a French friend who is regaling Facebook with misinformation about Covid vaccines. Some of her posts have been blocked by Facebook, about which she has been noisily indignant. She seems to be a bit of an anti-vaxxer in general. For my own sanity, I sometimes post what I regard as rational counter-narratives which she ignores.