NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Tom Cannavan

Administrator
The big 'danger' must surely be the 9 million 18 - 29 year-olds who are so far not vaccinated, now taking a very reasonable decision (on one level) not to have any vaccine, thus potentially keeping the R much higher than it might be.
 
I agree with the thrust of what you say Jonathan, but surely Macron of all people should have factored in the French context, rather than allowing himself to be quoted as saying the AZ vaccine is ineffective even when it was obvious there was a general supply problem - and that was only weeks ago
Interestingly, many French are at odds with Macron on this, I quote a little taster from a web article in "Le Figaro" a few weeks ago...."La France est malade. Depuis 150 ans, elle souffre d’un étrange mal, peu étudié par les psychiatres et les infectiologues, méconnu des épidémiologistes. Ce mal, c’est la «névrose allemande», une maladie qui touche uniquement les élites et les enferme dans une forme de suivisme et de fascination névrotique à l’égard de notre voisin germanique"

It goes on, and is very political (including the "B" word), as befits a right-wing broadhseet, so this isn't the place, though I dare to point out that Macron has IMO at least somewhat contributed to the current mess in France...
 

Tom Cannavan

Administrator
Even if a causal link is proved between the AZ vaccine and blood clots, the risk is still lower than many other routine medical procedures. General anaesthetic carries a fatality risk of five per million - I've never heard of anyone refusing it because they might die.

Phil, I guess the difference is that having a general anaesthetic is most often for surgery or a procedure that is vital or very important to the patient's health so isn't really a matter of choice for most people. Having the Covid vaccine is a matter of choice, and I can see how sentiment will have changed from three or four months ago. Then it was widely perceived as having no serious side-effects and being the only protection from a rampaging killer disease, now there are doubts over the blood clot link and the rates of serious illness and death have fallen so much. Younger people might decide their risk of covid illness is so small that they elect not to have it.

For absence of doubt, I will be taking my second dose of AZ as soon as it is offered and think that to do so is by far the most sensible approach.
 
For excess deaths certainly, but then one has to define a baseline of certain deaths and that is fraught with complexity. At the very least they should own the obvious mistakes. BJ does that sometimes, I’ve yet to see Macron doing that.
For all deaths. That's what presidents and Prime Ministers sign up for, as good ones willingly concede.
 
Global statistics are meaningless, especially when the risk of covid is so much lower for young people than for old people, so you have to look at the risk per age tranche: copied and pasted
"
"For instance, the UK reports a mere 79 blood clot cases from the AZ vaccine out of 20 million vaccinations, of whom 19 died.
That, of course, doesn’t make the AZ vaccine “safe”. Rather, it can be deemed safe enough for general use. But then, there is another factor to consider. The risk-benefit ratio is not the same for all ages. The chances of suffering a fatal blood clot a higher in the younger age groups. In particular, 18-29 year-olds have been cited – and it is this group which has a low risk of suffering serious harm from Covid-19.
People within the 20-29 age group (with low exposure risk) have a risk of 0.8 per 100,000 of being admitted to an ICU compared with a 1.1 per 100,000 of suffering harm from an AZ vaccine."

I have not checked the numbers but the point is directionnaly correct: The young have low risk of Covid damage, the young females have a relatively high risk of blood clot which means what is right for the general population is wrong for young females (the stat above is for both male and female). Of course, there is the added complexity of herd immunity.

However, it can be safely concluded that the solution is to inject the young female population an alternative vaccine such as the Pfizer (for instance RNA based) which does not show the same risk of blood clot . It will allow to save lives and the young population will feel safer to get vaccinated which is the target to reach herd immunity.
Drawing quick conclusion from general statistics is often wrong. In this case, it is absolutely wrong and countries across the world have been right to advise alternative vaccines for young females. I believe 30 years old is a limit that should be increased but then you get the issue of supply of alternatives to AZ.
 
Even if a causal link is proved between the AZ vaccine and blood clots, the risk is still lower than many other routine medical procedures. General anaesthetic carries a fatality risk of five per million - I've never heard of anyone refusing it because they might die.
I think part of the problem is although we have gross statistics on chances of dying from AZ blood clot and from Covid-19, those are overall, and we know that certain factors greatly increase the risk of dying, e.g., diabetes for Covid-19. But we don't have statistics that break down the odds of dying by those risk types. Thus, one really can't make an informed decision at this point.

Also, the risk profiles are changing as the virus continues to mutate and evolve.
 
Global statistics are meaningless, especially when the risk of covid is so much lower for young people than for old people, so you have to look at the risk per age tranche: copied and pasted
"
"For instance, the UK reports a mere 79 blood clot cases from the AZ vaccine out of 20 million vaccinations, of whom 19 died.
That, of course, doesn’t make the AZ vaccine “safe”. Rather, it can be deemed safe enough for general use. But then, there is another factor to consider. The risk-benefit ratio is not the same for all ages. The chances of suffering a fatal blood clot a higher in the younger age groups. In particular, 18-29 year-olds have been cited – and it is this group which has a low risk of suffering serious harm from Covid-19.
People within the 20-29 age group (with low exposure risk) have a risk of 0.8 per 100,000 of being admitted to an ICU compared with a 1.1 per 100,000 of suffering harm from an AZ vaccine."

I have not checked the numbers but the point is directionnaly correct: The young have low risk of Covid damage, the young females have a relatively high risk of blood clot which means what is right for the general population is wrong for young females (the stat above is for both male and female). Of course, there is the added complexity of herd immunity.

However, it can be safely concluded that the solution is to inject the young female population an alternative vaccine such as the Pfizer (for instance RNA based) which does not show the same risk of blood clot . It will allow to save lives and the young population will feel safer to get vaccinated which is the target to reach herd immunity.
Drawing quick conclusion from general statistics is often wrong. In this case, it is absolutely wrong and countries across the world have been right to advise alternative vaccines for young females. I believe 30 years old is a limit that should be increased but then you get the issue of supply of alternatives to AZ.
It's not clear how much of a sex difference in AZ clot risk there is: "79 cases occurred in 51 women and 28 men, aged from 18 to 79 years. It should be noted that more women have been vaccinated with Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca than men." MHRA issues new advice, concluding a possible link between COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca and extremely rare, unlikely to occur blood clots
 
Has anyone seen the precise reasoning behind the UK setting the min age for the AZ vaccine to 30, while for other countries it is considerably higher.

All I have heard is some waffle about the epidemiology being different in the various countries, but from the seeming reluctance to engage with the question, I conclude that the limits in all countries are probably determined by the projected availability of the different vaccines, rather than clinical considerations.

Personally I would not have a problem with that, if it is the case - practical considerations are obviously important - but I'd rather that someone just came out and said it.
 
On the basis that a long haul flight has the same risk, will you be flying to Europe again or coming by boat?
I’ll be flying Bill. Unlike the vaccine, I don’t really have an alternative. That’s the key - just wait a bit and there will be other options, so why take a risk, even if it’s small. The Melbourne bloodclot case received a lot of coverage here and the Govt, to their credit, have again acted quickly.

My mother, father an brother have all received the AZ vaccine in the UK without incident are were relieved to receive it. I don’t think many people here will share that same sense of relief. I am told that behind the scenes Auz is already planning for a third wave over the winter and if Covid does escape from the quarantine hotels again, there will be swift lockdowns and border closures. Nobody wants them, but they are likely to be short and sharp and the Givt can’t inoculate enough of the population in time to stop them happening. There may be a bit more economic damage, but so far the economy has bounced back much quicker than anyone expected - the Govt have an enormous pre-budget potential warchest as borrowing is something like $100 billion less than expected.
 
Interesting that both my 20 something daughters are keen to have the AZ or whatever vaccine. The risks are so low and this pandemic so disruptive. I looking forward to my second dose.
All medicine has side affects. It will be interesting to find if the unlucky victims of the clots have other factors. I'm suspicious of the pill which already has similar side affects.
 
I have a French friend who is regaling Facebook with misinformation about Covid vaccines. Some of her posts have been blocked by Facebook, about which she has been noisily indignant. She seems to be a bit of an anti-vaxxer in general. For my own sanity, I sometimes post what I regard as rational counter-narratives which she ignores.
My ex seems to be in that camp and choosing to ignore requests from NHS to get jabbed (5 so far) using the excuse of not living where she is NHS registered. I am often send videos and reading matter which I studiously ignore. One mutual FB friend even loopier but to repeat any of his views would get this thread shut down by TC. I take the view that ignoring those who will not listen is the only way.
 
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