NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Remember the French stats are now for over 12s not over 18s.
Schools are now arranging transport to vaccination centres during the school day so expect the % to go up.

Quite soon all over 12s will need the pass to enter restaurants, cafes, museums etc - but not schools.
 
I wish I could say that there were only blue skies ahead for France, but a report issued today from the Institut Pasteur says that it will be very difficult to avoid a fifth wave -- the infectiousness of the delta variant requires immunities at about the 95% level in order to be confident that it will not arise.

That said, I think we've already seen with the fourth wave, which was much less serious than the third wave, the maximum numbers are likely to be decreasing.
 
The guardian is reporting that there is already a proposal for a two week half term firebreak lockdown. It’s rogue sage scientist based at the moment not denied by Downing Street but you know how these things are leaked and briefed.
Deaths today at 209 and infections pushing 40000. We’ve not seen any increase from schools returning yet. In England that is.
Vaccine roll out has stalled and we need 95% I’m guessing to stall the spread.
 
Dan Baillie said:
Everyone seems to be expecting numbers to increase again. What's interesting is that in France numbers are falling rapidly again despite the Delta variant being prevalent and no material difference in vaccination rates. Only difference seems to be mask wearing.
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Being just back, I immediately noted masks are not worn in London while shopkeepers tell you off in France if you don't wear a mask.... Ref vaccination rates, while proportion vaccinated don't look that different, once you look at unvaccinated numbers, the difference looks bigger (as unvaccinated are much smaller numbers than vaccinated...)

More depressing, fruits and vegetables are readily available in large diversity and quantities in France while Waitrose looks quite a bit deprived... but of course, diet is not an element in this pandemic.
 
Thom Blach said:
It seems to me that we are more or less back to 'normal' here. I hope that doesn't quickly become something that we regret.
The French government's success in turning round what was a far more vaccine sceptical country than the UK seems to me remarkable.
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Don't worry Tom, given the awful numbers in Jan-Feb (1000-1500 deaths a day...), nowadays numbers of 100-200 daily deaths look very good.... the magic of statistics... Frightening!... or not to worry?
 
Antoine Singer said:
Being just back, I immediately noted masks are not worn in London while shopkeepers tell you off in France if you don't wear a mask.... Ref vaccination rates, while proportion vaccinated don't look that different, once you look at unvaccinated numbers, the difference looks bigger (as unvaccinated are much smaller numbers than vaccinated...)

More depressing, fruits and vegetables are readily available in large diversity and quantities in France while Waitrose looks quite a bit deprived... but of course, diet is not an element in this pandemic.
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I think vegetables have always been noticeably disappointing in the UK supermarkets so we’re just missing more bad vegetables… Natoora seem to have not been affected which is good.
 
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We seem to have jumped up 20 in the past couple of days. Of course hard to pinpoint the causes but not good. Assuming (which seems a fair assumption I think) that masks make a big difference, it does seem that enforcing a strict mask mandate will make any coming lockdown less likely or at least shorter.

As they say - the best time for a strictly enforced mask mandate was in July, the second best time is now...
 
I gather the informal threshold for reintroducing restrictions was 50,000 deaths on an annual basis = c. 1,000/week = 143/day. Maybe we will all be told to WFH again soon :)

Be a shame if the burgeoning offline diary can't be fulfilled though.
 
Leon Marks said:
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We seem to have jumped up 20 in the past couple of days. Of course hard to pinpoint the causes but not good. Assuming (which seems a fair assumption I think) that masks make a big difference, it does seem that enforcing a strict mask mandate will make any coming lockdown less likely or at least shorter.

As they say - the best time for a strictly enforced mask mandate was in July, the second best time is now...
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I don’t think that is accurate Leon as it’s the reporting date not date of death. That has seen an increase from about 90 at the start of August to just under 115 now. With it pretty flat and slightly declining in the last few weeks.
 
This is the government’s advice directly from Gov.uk
“The government expects and recommends that people wear face coverings in crowded and enclosed areas where you come into contact with people you do not normally meet, such as public transport.”

How often do they mention that?

I would argue that a crowded pub, shop etc were the same.
 
Except that smoking cannabis is illegal and not wearing a mask isn’t.

It’s personal choice now, and if they’re not wearing them in the chamber it shows that MPs don’t really think masks offer any protection at all. Either that or they’re not worried about catching Covid.
 
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