NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

[Gareth Germain]

It's the 'unless you want to' which is so hopeless when it comes to public transport, shops and where crowds of people assemble indoors.

Ok well it doesn’t add anything and is already implied by the rest of the sentence.

 

[Thom Blach]

Indeed. If it is recommended, as it is for the situations I suggested, it should be compulsory, which saves trouble for everyone.

 

[Gareth Germain]

Indeed. If it is recommended, as it is for the situations I suggested, it should be compulsory, which saves trouble for everyone.

I just don’t think that is workable at all Tom. Compulsory mask wearing in for example busy places is a nightmare to enforce. Would you care to elaborate on how exactly that would work in practise say for public transport and a shopping centre?

 

[Thom Blach]

As it works in almost every other country in Europe, Gareth, and previously worked here. It is quite straightforward.
It could also be decided by government advisors that mask wearing no longer offers much benefit, in which case it is no longer suggested. It's the woolly indecisiveness of 'personal responsibility' which is such a pointless and useless compromise.

 

[Gareth Germain]

As it works in almost every other country in Europe, Gareth, and previously worked here. It is quite straightforward.

I genuinely don’t know what you mean Tom. Do you mean a simple blanked instruction on mask wearing in every situation outside of your home unless seated in a restaurant or at work? If so that’s quite different from varying prescribed mask wearing according to levels of busyness (for example).

 

[Thom Blach]

I genuinely don’t know what you mean Tom.

I'm sorry about that.

 

[Steve Slatcher]

I'm with Tom.

Other countries do it now, and we've had legislation requiring mask-wearing before over here in the past. I fail to understand why it should suddenly become so problematic.

It is also perfectly reasonable to support the principle of mask-wearing legislation, without saying precisely what the rules should be. (As far as I am concerned, anything would be better than nothing.)

 

[Alex Lake]

What has the mask-wearing adherence been like in Germany and Austria?

 

[Gareth Germain]

I'm with Tom.

Other countries do it now, and we've had legislation requiring mask-wearing before over here in the past. I fail to understand why it should suddenly become so problematic.

It is also perfectly reasonable to support the principle of mask-wearing legislation, without saying precisely what the rules should be. (As far as I am concerned, anything would be better than nothing.)

* post removed as I had misunderstood what Tom was referring to as “absolutely hopeless”. Which was not myself but current government policy.

 

[Alex Lake]

Surely Tom is advocating the mandatory use of masks in a wide number of places?

I'm wondering if that'll be enough, and that a "health pass" may be required if we're to avoid full-scale lockdowns.

 

[Gareth Germain]

Surely Tom is advocating the mandatory use of masks in a wide number of places?

I'm wondering if that'll be enough, and that a "health pass" may be required if we're to avoid full-scale lockdowns.

* edited in light of PM discussion about what was meant in a comment earlier. I overreacted but based on a misunderstanding.

 

[Thom Blach]

I should have thought it perfectly clear that I was simply advocating that where mask wearing continues to be recommended, ie in enclosed public spaces, it be compulsory, for the sake of clarity, simplicity and effectiveness. It doesn't seem to me to be any kind of outlandish idea, and if it doesn't in fact help in the end it at least does no harm.

 

[Gareth Germain]

Why not just say that two pages ago then?! Gosh it would have saved a lot of nonsense!

 

[Thom Blach]

It is precisely what I have been saying all along, since August in fact.
It may yet turn out that our fourth wave was precipitated by the early removal of precautions whereas in Europe it is only happening now, in which case there may have been some advantage having the surge before the winter months, but if this was the intention I can't for the life of me see what's wrong with being clear about it. Let's hope that numbers keep going down from their current high level.

 

[Alex Lake]

It is precisely what I have been saying all along, since August in fact.
It may yet turn out that our fourth wave was precipitated by the early removal of precautions whereas in Europe it is only happening now, in which case there may have been some advantage having the surge before the winter months, but if this was the intention I can't for the life of me see what's wrong with being clear about it. Let's hope that numbers keep going down from their current high level.

That point was certainly made by many (but not all) experts several months back.

 

[Jeremy Caan]

Anybody seen more recent evidence than this on lateral flow test false negatives? Speedy Covid tests are very useful, but not conclusive | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

I ask because many of us seem to have settled into a routine of taking a LFT before social events so as not to infect others. It's certainly better than nothing but still seems to leave a fair degree of potential for non-symptomatic carriers to infect others.

 

[Gareth Germain]

Anybody seen more recent evidence than this on lateral flow test false negatives? Speedy Covid tests are very useful, but not conclusive | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

I ask because many of us seem to have settled into a routine of taking a LFT before social events so as not to infect others. It's certainly better than nothing but still seems to leave a fair degree of potential for non-symptomatic carriers to infect others.

Fran and I take them everyday as she get them from her practise. The info she has is that they are good at detecting high loads but not so accurate below that but that lower loads should not be as contagious as the higher ones. We’ve had two false positives in the last few months but let’s hope no false negatives! Guardian article seems to indicate the science has changed on this but this was news to Fran this morning.

 

[Alex Lake]

Esepcially given the recent spate of false negatives from PCR tests, I'm happy to rely on LFTs for this purpose.

 

[Steve Slatcher]

Anybody seen more recent evidence than this on lateral flow test false negatives? Speedy Covid tests are very useful, but not conclusive | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

I ask because many of us seem to have settled into a routine of taking a LFT before social events so as not to infect others. It's certainly better than nothing but still seems to leave a fair degree of potential for non-symptomatic carriers to infect others.

No test is infallible, but LFT is a lot better than nothing and, in the light of currently available evidence, very worthwhile

1) LFT false negatives are most likely if you are not very infectious

2) In some ways LFT is better than PCR. The results are immediate, so you can isolate immediately if positive. With PCR testing you could be spreading Covid while waiting for results, or get infected soon after giving a negative swab and be spreading

 

[Jeremy Caan]

Fran and I take them everyday as she get them from her practise. The info she has is that they are good at detecting high loads but not so accurate below that but that lower loads should not be as contagious as the higher ones. We’ve had two false positives in the last few months but let’s hope no false negatives! Guardian article seems to indicate the science has changed on this but this was news to Fran this morning.

The Guardian article was from March 2021 and I was hoping there'd been more data since then.

But I agree there's comfort in the idea that high viral load carriers will be spotted by LFT, and that it's mostly lower risk low viral load infections that don't get flagged.

 

[Dan Baillie]

Not sure I'm quite as sanguine about the situation but still a useful summary again of where things stand...

Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?

Good vaccine uptake and natural immunity, coupled with public caution, has put UK in a strong position.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Jeremy Caan]

Not sure I'm quite as sanguine about the situation but still a useful summary again of where things stand...

Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?

Good vaccine uptake and natural immunity, coupled with public caution, has put UK in a strong position.

www.bbc.co.uk

There was an initially reassuring piece today in which Oxford/AZ's Pollard said those in ICU are now largely the unvaccinated but reminding us that it can still kill the vaccinated old and vulnerable.

The way I read this, for those of us with aged Ps or immuno-compromised folk in our orbit, caution is very much still warranted. I wouldn't be surprised if that constituted a majority of the population. And it still isn't clear to me how to assess the odds of a false negative LFT.

 

[Russell Faulkner]

I rather liked the German approach.

Dead, Vaccinated, Recovered.

 

[Richard Zambuni]

By the by, Sweden that has been an interesting test case because of their different approach (especially initially), is now 21 out of 31 countries in Europe in terms of excess deaths per capita, which are a good comparator.

 

[Richard Zambuni]

Here you go Bryan: Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

Excess deaths since country’s first 50 covid deaths​

Last updated on November 22nd​

COUNTRY / CITY
TIME PERIOD
COVID-19 DEATHS
EXCESS DEATHS
EXCESS DEATHS
PER 100K PEOPLE
Bulgaria
Apr 20th 2020-Oct 24th 2021
23,030
45,690
663
Russia
Apr 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
234,180
904,340
620
Peru
Mar 23rd 2020-Nov 14th 2021
200,600
197,040
591
North Macedonia
Apr 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2021
5,930
11,510
553
Lithuania
May 25th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
5,820
14,370
534
Serbia
Apr 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
8,220
35,340
514
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Apr 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
9,650
15,040
461
Mexico
Mar 30th 2020-Oct 10th 2021
277,790
579,440
445
Kosovo
Jul 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
2,900
7,730
434
Albania
Jun 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
2,660
11,220
391
Kazakhstan
Jun 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
15,870
74,190
391
Bolivia
Apr 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
18,730
46,190
390
South Africa
Apr 13th 2020-Nov 14th 2021
89,720
226,750
378
Romania
Mar 30th 2020-Sep 26th 2021
36,300
71,320
373
Ecuador
Mar 23rd 2020-Nov 7th 2021
20,340
65,940
369
Belarus
Apr 1st 2020-Mar 31st 2021
2,250
33,690
357
Montenegro
Jul 27th 2020-May 23rd 2021
1,530
2,190
348
Poland
Mar 30th 2020-Oct 10th 2021
75,850
128,060
339
Czech Republic
Mar 30th 2020-Sep 26th 2021
30,440
35,280
329
Slovakia
Sep 28th 2020-Sep 19th 2021
12,520
17,700
324
Hungary
Apr 6th 2020-Oct 17th 2021
30,320
30,130
313
Croatia
Apr 20th 2020-Oct 3rd 2021
8,630
12,450
305
Brazil
Mar 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
596,750
650,560
304
Iran
Feb 24th 2020-Nov 7th 2021
127,290
254,630
299
Latvia
Oct 19th 2020-Oct 24th 2021
2,980
5,440
292
Moldova
Apr 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
6,190
11,430
284
Colombia
Apr 6th 2020-Jul 11th 2021
112,790
135,850
265
Italy
Mar 2nd 2020-Aug 29th 2021
129,060
157,560
261
Ukraine
Apr 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
59,960
112,400
259
Paraguay
Aug 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2021
15,720
18,040
250
United States
Mar 8th 2020-Aug 21st 2021
615,360
808,160
246
Spain
Mar 9th 2020-Oct 24th 2021
87,120
109,600
234
Guatemala
May 18th 2020-Sep 26th 2021
13,340
41,700
229
Portugal
Mar 23rd 2020-Oct 31st 2021
18,140
23,000
226
Estonia
Apr 27th 2020-Nov 7th 2021
1,560
2,970
224
Slovenia
Apr 6th 2020-Oct 17th 2021
4,610
4,270
206
Britain
Mar 16th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
141,010
137,600
202
Egypt
Apr 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
16,120
205,730
197
Kyrgyzstan
Jun 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2021
2,510
12,370
187
Lebanon
Jul 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
8,290
12,440
184
Georgia
Feb 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
5,320
7,160
180
Belgium
Mar 16th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
25,990
20,770
179
Chile
Apr 6th 2020-Oct 24th 2021
37,640
33,740
176
San Marino
Dec 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
50
60
172
Greece
Mar 30th 2020-Oct 3rd 2021
14,880
16,460
159
Panama
Apr 1st 2020-Apr 30th 2021
6,200
6,650
152
Netherlands
Mar 16th 2020-Nov 7th 2021
18,980
26,160
152
Uruguay
Oct 1st 2020-Jul 31st 2021
5,920
5,200
149
Austria
Mar 23rd 2020-Oct 31st 2021
11,340
12,930
143
El Salvador
Jun 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2020
670
8,560
131
France
Mar 9th 2020-Oct 17th 2021
118,160
86,420
128
Switzerland
Mar 16th 2020-Oct 17th 2021
11,130
10,780
124
Uzbekistan
Jul 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
1,210
37,770
111
Sweden
Mar 16th 2020-Oct 24th 2021
14,990
11,200
110
Istanbul
Mar 25th 2020-Jan 1st 2021
10,420
16,190
104
Tajikistan
Mar 21st 2020-Dec 20th 2020
90
9,660
99
Germany
Mar 16th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
95,720
83,100
99
Argentina
Apr 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
43,220
42,830
94
Oman
Jun 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
4,060
4,490
86
Israel
Mar 30th 2020-Oct 17th 2021
7,980
7,530
81
Kuwait
May 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
910
3,260
75
Malta
Oct 19th 2020-Oct 3rd 2021
410
380
73
Philippines
Mar 1st 2020-Jul 31st 2021
27,890
76,470
69
Cyprus
Nov 30th 2020-Sep 19th 2021
500
610
68
Finland
Apr 6th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
1,130
3,160
57
Nicaragua
Jun 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2020
100
3,840
57
Thailand
Apr 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
19,200
39,520
56
Tunisia
Jun 15th 2020-Feb 14th 2021
7,160
6,500
54
Belize
Oct 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
220
200
49
Andorra
May 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
40
30
44
Canada
Mar 23rd 2020-Jul 11th 2021
26,420
15,730
41
Luxembourg
Apr 6th 2020-Oct 3rd 2021
800
250
40
Jakarta
Mar 1st 2020-May 31st 2020
520
4,290
40
Seychelles
Jun 1st 2021-Jun 30th 2021
20
40
38
Ireland
Mar 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
5,000
1,820
36
Denmark
Mar 23rd 2020-Nov 7th 2021
2,730
1,890
33
Qatar
Jun 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
570
790
27
Hong Kong
Aug 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2021
180
1,570
21
Costa Rica
Feb 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
2,180
940
18
Mongolia
Feb 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
1,740
430
13
Jamaica
Sep 1st 2020-Nov 30th 2020
240
250
9
Norway
Mar 30th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
880
470
9
Malaysia
Apr 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
26,290
2,510
8
Japan
Mar 1st 2020-Aug 31st 2021
16,060
10,100
8
Cuba
Apr 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2020
140
-170
-1
Dominican Republic
Mar 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2020
2,100
-90
-1
Singapore
Feb 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
100
-150
-3
South Korea
Mar 2nd 2020-Aug 29th 2021
2,270
-3,430
-7
Iceland
Feb 3rd 2020-Aug 15th 2021
30
-30
-8
Australia
Apr 6th 2020-Jul 25th 2021
880
-2,460
-10
Taiwan
Feb 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
850
-5,550
-23
Liechtenstein
Jan 1st 2021-Aug 31st 2021
10
-10
-30
Mauritius
Feb 1st 2020-Jun 30th 2021
20
-550
-43
New Zealand
Feb 3rd 2020-Oct 24th 2021
30
-2,680
-52
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