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Really like this article - although it majors on Cognitive Bias when in fact the real story seems to be more about abject innumeracy.
In Singapore, not only does the Prime Minister’s Office recruit highly numerate staff, but Prime Minister Lee himself was a top Cambridge mathematics graduate.
These things are usually exagerrated for effect, but that's actually true! He was considered one of the very best mathematicians within Trinity, which is saying something.In Singapore, not only does the Prime Minister’s Office recruit highly numerate staff, but Prime Minister Lee himself was a top Cambridge mathematics graduate.
It doesn’t seem to have helped him work out that homophobia is wrong.These things are usually exagerrated for effect, but that's actually true! He was considered one of the very best mathematicians within Trinity, which is saying something.
I wonder if he's seen the film about Ramanujan. It's currently available on iplayer: The Man Who Knew InfinityThese things are usually exagerrated for effect, but that's actually true! He was considered one of the very best mathematicians within Trinity, which is saying something.
Am I missing something? Seems like te only really interesting point in that article was that SAGE should include overseas members from eg Asia and Africa in order to avoid some groupthink.
For some reason I cannot link via school internet, saying it's not a secured link.
Without a statistical training politicians failed to identify the early signs of exponential growth and the need to act swiftly before evidence was gathered. Evidence led policy doesn’t work in a rapid pandemic, but you need to be aware of your cognitive biases and limitations to understand that.The House of Commons report reveals that Ministers and other advisers felt it difficult to challenge the views of their official scientific advisers. The intrinsic uncertainty in scientific knowledge might have been more candidly admitted, along with the lack of scientific training within Whitehall. The Chief Scientific Adviser was dismayed that only 10% of the Civil Service Fast Stream had a science or engineering degree. Such graduates would have been aware of probability, the formal language of uncertainty.
Yes, although a decent level of understanding of maths is good, not sure being a top mathmo is necessarily important for being a political leader.It doesn’t seem to have helped him work out that homophobia is wrong.
This was kinda my point - the article spoke about cognitive bias, where the real problem is just abject innumeracy. The cognitive bias is just how they ended up making decisions when lacking the capability to think in terms of statistical probabilities. There *are* important studies about the dangers of groupthink in decision making (I enjoyed this little article) however any talk of "cognitive bias" fills me with shivers - not least because of the replication crisis.Am I missing something? Seems like te only really interesting point in that article was that SAGE should include overseas members from eg Asia and Africa in order to avoid some groupthink.
This was the part before the bit @Leon Marks quoted:
Without a statistical training politicians failed to identify the early signs of exponential growth and the need to act swiftly before evidence was gathered. Evidence led policy doesn’t work in a rapid pandemic, but you need to be aware of your cognitive biases and limitations to understand that.
Who edits the BBC website?Covid: Pfizer and Moderna jabs give best overall boost, UK trial finds
Researchers say there are signs the boosters would still offer protection against new variant Omicron.www.bbc.co.uk
Tell me about it...without wanting to encourage thread drift too much, I remember an online article earlier this year, about the relative lack of likelihood of seeing a particular meteor shower because "the moon was waxing gibbons"... I'm not monkeying around here...
A craft I'd not previously come across. What an exceptionally shiny gibbon you have there, Sir, which we have concluded merits best in show.Tell me about it...without wanting to encourage thread drift too much, I remember an online article earlier this year, about the relative lack of likelihood of seeing a particular meteor shower because "the moon was waxing gibbons"... I'm not monkeying around here...
I appreciate that the pedantry task is normally the responsibility of another, but gibbons are apes not monkeys.Tell me about it...without wanting to encourage thread drift too much, I remember an online article earlier this year, about the relative lack of likelihood of seeing a particular meteor shower because "the moon was waxing gibbons"... I'm not monkeying around here...
Tell me about it...without wanting to encourage thread drift too much, I remember an online article earlier this year, about the relative lack of likelihood of seeing a particular meteor shower because "the moon was waxing gibbons"... I'm not monkeying around here...