NWR new zero tolerance covid thread

Perfectly happy with my predictions Ben! And stand by what I said in spring 2020. Lockdowns do more harm than good and masks are a pointless charade. You can’t control it, and we are all getting it regardless!

Anyway time to enjoy a Saturday evening in the pub before the lockdown zealots try to prevent that too!

Have a good night.
 
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One of the things that really strikes me about a lot of this discussion is how very bad analogy is at persuading people of things. It seems to be an incredibly useful tool for *understanding*, but when it comes to persuasion- you see people on both sides genuinely unable to understand why people don’t see things their way.

Scott Adams (who repeatedly, for me at least, makes me think of this) writes thusly:

Analogy Analogies are good for explaining concepts for the first time. But they have no value in debate. Analogies are not logic, and they are not relevant facts. An analogy is literally just two things that remind you of each other on at least one dimension. When I see a cauliflower, it reminds me of a human brain, but that doesn’t mean you should eat brains in your salad. When your debate opponents retreat to analogies, it is because they have no rational arguments. You won. There’s a reason your plumber never describes the source of your leak with an analogy. He just points to the problem and says it needs to be repaired or replaced. No one needs an analogy when facts and reason can do the job.
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I don’t agree with him entirely - I think we tend to argue with analogy because we *understand* with analogy, rather than because our arguments are weak, but there is a there there.

Semi-related - I think we think too much about what people think. It’s not people being “anti vax” which is the problem. It's not having been vaccinated. I tend to agree that we can’t forcibly vaccinate, but we can encourage vaccination, and we can deny access to services from people who present significant risks. If I hadn't just argued against the use of analogy, I might say - just as we deny people who have drunk alcohol the right to drive cars or perform many jobs.
 
David Pope said:
I had my booster jab this afternoon. A lengthy queue in the rain. I wasn't happy about getting wet but the length of the queue is encouraging, as it suggests that people are responding to the calls for vaccination.
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All booked for tomorrow at a boots 2 mins away. Super easy. Fran says there has been an overwhelming response which is encouraging because London is typically lowest for vaccine rates.
 
Jeremy Caan said:
I guess people don't want to be ill at Christmas. Sensible really.
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Fran was on a London wise GP rep call where they were discussing this (they’ve been asking some people to do a short survey) apparently one of the main reasons is to try and stop further restrictions. Good in a way but also suggests public waning re compliance were further restrictions needed. Obviously HMG have been particularly unhelpful in this regard lately.

For some reason things feel on much more of a knife edge than previous points like this. The mood does seem to have shifted. Which if what some modellers are predicting re omicron comes about would mean we would be in serious serious trouble.
 
I had hoped that the new variant might be almost benign but it seems that the inevitable hospitalisations are now beginning.
Let us hope that the criminally irresponsible do not prevent the required measures being enacted.
 
Johnny Richardson said:
My 40 something "kids" and spouses have now had their boosters, at the Sandown Park mega-tent I believe. Two of the four have had covid, and all four grand-kids, so surely we must be reaching saturation point by now...or not?
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This graphic I posted above might give you an idea

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I thought this was quite good on the kind of double bind over the acceptance of measures Omicron creates:

Francois Balloux

That said the FT graphic does look promising to me - to have gone from 100% immuno-naive to what, 5% or so, in 21 months or so is clearly something. The point all along has not been that this is some uniquely ghastly virus, but that it is one our immune systems haven't met before.
 
Slick booking system for Antigen test at Lanzarote airport prior to departure. Just hope it's as slick (and negative of course) when we get there.
 
If the South African doctors are correct, and they now have 4 weeks of data, then not only is Omicron great news but it should bring the entire pandemic to an end within a few months.

Covid will just turn into another mild coronavirus that comes and goes every year, with cold-like symptoms (as it was expected to).

Early days but very encouraging signs and certainly no reason at this stage to panic.
 
David Pope said:
I had my booster jab this afternoon. A lengthy queue in the rain. I wasn't happy about getting wet but the length of the queue is encouraging, as it suggests that people are responding to the calls for vaccination.
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I booked mine on Thursday for today, there were many availability then. Today the queue was insane and the staff said the booking has gone to Jan 2022. I guess people read the report and they got it.
 
A summary of where things stand. Explains why the govt is reacting in the way it is and why everyone should be so concerned until we know for sure whether this variant is more or less severe...

"Real world data confirm Omicron escape from Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines. However, preliminary real world data from the UK’s Health Security Agency suggests that overall vaccine efficacy mirrors antibody responses. The preliminary data contained in its Technical Briefing 31 published on 10 December showed that efficacy of the 2-dose PFE vaccine against the Delta COVID-19 variant fell from c.90% at 2-9 weeks after the second vaccine dose to c. 60% at 6 weeks. The efficacy against the Omicron variant at six weeks was in the mid-30s % range, so almost half as effective as against the Delta variant. The data also show, with caveats, that the efficacy of the AZN vaccine against the Delta variant fell from the high-70s % at 2-9 weeks post the second dose to 40% at six weeks post the second dose. However, the efficacy against the Omicron variant was just above zero at 6 weeks. The caveats on the data with the AZN vaccine are that low numbers of patients overall and a high proportion of elderly patients could have skewed the data, but when vaccine efficacy was starting at a lower level, we believe a greater reduction in efficacy against the Omicron strain makes sense scientifically. Countries that have used the AZN vaccine as the primary vaccine source are arguably more exposed to lower efficacy against Omicron if these data are validated. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as a third dose/booster seems to do its job…for now. On a positive note, real world protection versus Omicron was boosted to 71-76% (source: UKHSA) after the PFE/BNTX vaccine was given as a third/booster dose, whether the PFE/BNTX or AZN vaccine was given as the first two doses. But, these data are limited in sample size. What is clearly not known yet is the duration of protection from the third/booster vaccine dose, given that protection against the Delta variant declined by around 50% from 4 months after the second dose. Scientifically, against a more infectious variant, at best, the same rate of decline in efficacy may be expected, but a more rapid decline would not be a surprise, requiring new Omicron specific vaccines."
 
Dom Shepherd said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1469998211863621636

Worth a listen.

Mild 5 day illness whether you are vaccinated or not.

"There's no reason why you can't trust us when we say to you 'it's mild disease'" Dr Angelique Coetzee of the South African Medical Association details the Omicron situation in the country that alerted the world to the variant.
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Not on twitter so can't listen to it. However, unless it's quoting large sample size, proper scientific data sets and analysis (ie it isn't just anecdotal), we can't afford to be laissez faire about this given the analysis I quoted above shows zero protection against Omicron for double jabbed AZ people. I repeat, zero protection.
 
Robbie Ward said:
www.ecdc.europa.eu

Epidemiological update: Omicron variant of concern (VOC) – data as of 12 December 2021 (12:00)

As of 12 December and since 11 December 2021, 34 additional SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) cases have been confirmed in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA), contributing to an overall total of 766 confirmed cases so far.
www.ecdc.europa.eu www.ecdc.europa.eu
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“All cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. There have been no Omicron-related deaths reported thus far.”
 
Dan Baillie said:
Not on twitter so can't listen to it. However, unless it's quoting large sample size, proper scientific data sets and analysis (ie it isn't just anecdotal), we can't afford to be laissez faire about this given the analysis I quoted above shows zero protection against Omicron for double jabbed AZ people. I repeat, zero protection.
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I understand your point of view Dan but think the complete opposite. Restrictions should be an absolute last resort, not a ‘just in case’ measure. If we panic and introduce restrictions every time there is a new variant then this will go on forever. If the data from South Africa shows it’s a mild illness regardless of vaccination status then I think we should be living completely as normal. We cannot go on thinking that masks, boosters every 2 months and other restrictions are the answer to new variants.
 
Po-yu Sung said:
I booked mine on Thursday for today, there were many availability then. Today the queue was insane and the staff said the booking has gone to Jan 2022. I guess people read the report and they got it.
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Hi Po, sorry if I've missed something in a previous post but which report are you referring to?
 
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