Wine prices to fall?

Alex Lake

Alex Lake

Location
Deep South of Cambridgeshire
There seem to be various headwinds for wine pricing, mostly down to potential global recession, especially if US tariffs really do go to 200% (which I doubt).

Presumably there might be quite a glut of fine wine on the market, at least in the short term.

Obvs feel free to delete if you want, Tom - no offence will be taken!
 
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I suppose it would depend on whether the US merchants thought that they could still sell the wine at the increased price, which sort of depends on how much, when and for how long they think the tarrifs would remain.
 
"Trump said the tariffs would be "great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S." However, wine importers and distributors, retailers and bar owners that Reuters spoke to said that they would pay the price." - I misunderstood the meaning of this first time!
 
Alex Lake said:
"Trump said the tariffs would be "great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S." However, wine importers and distributors, retailers and bar owners that Reuters spoke to said that they would pay the price." - I misunderstood the meaning of this first time!
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Both ways round might be true.
 
Mark Carrington said:
Randall Grahm's take on Bluesky.
This is not a windfall for domestic wine producers. Many of us sell our wine through wholesalers whose portfolio largely consists of European wines. These wholesalers are already struggling and the tariffs could be a mortal blow.
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Trump doesn't drink, so I guess doesn't care.

But we don't know whether it'll happen.
 
Posturing so far. Will hit champagne houses hard. Will affect the value of currency hedges on transatlantic trade as well. Retaliatory measures will hit Californian etc wines. South American producers will gladly fill the void. All talk and won't happen. Just negotiating tactics.
 
Don`t worry, this will not happen. The EU commision will appease under the pressure from the French president Macron.
They will find of course another tariff, but NOT whiskey.

At the end of the day it is quite likely that these tariffs from USA will result in recession or worser in the United States.

Uncertainty is the poison for Wall Street.
 
Sean Hardon said:
I thought the same. Got it from here Wine in France | The Observatory of Economic Complexity
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Ah, so it's a typo. The real figures are below

Exports In 2023, France exported $13.6B in Wine, making it the 1st largest exporter of Wine in the world. At the same year, Wine was the 6th most exported product in France. The main destination of Wine exports from France are: United States ($2.53B), United Kingdom ($1.88B), Japan ($982M), Germany ($825M), and Singapore ($656M).
 
The US wine industry, which is 80% plus Californian, has been struggling for the last decade or so, with exports hit particularly hard, down 50% by volume and 20% by value, and the growing Canadian boycott is already having a huge impact. My sister lives quite near the US border in British Columbia, and none of her local wine shops and off-licenses now stock any American wine. She says she has never seen Canadians so angry - well, in 25 years she's almost never seen Canadians angry at all! Of course, the US imports way more wine than it exports, so if the tariffs on European wine are implemented, domestic demand will no doubt pick up, but the general mood is tipping towards existential dread -
Changing tastes, cheap imports, a looming Canadian boycott. A 'perfect storm' for California's wine industry.
 
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